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Trends which are probable in the next few years and which reinforce the steady rise include: (1) an increasing number of admissions, based on an estimated 300 more arrests per year of juveniles, (2) decreased use of discretion at intake, already a new policy of the court, will continue, and will increase detention, since intake workers may not release juveniles detained for serious offenses. The court will make these dispositions itself, (3) no continuing probation for those who commit a felony while on conditional release, already a new policy of the court, which will have the effect of increasing the number of initial hearings over the course of the next year by about 500, (4) the number of 16 and 17 year olds arrested and detained for serious offenses under the new Court Reform Act will not make appreciable detention demands beyond those currently being made on the facility.*

*See Appendix 1, Trends in Numbers of 16 and 17 Year Olds Arrested for Offenses, and Graphs 21 through 23 for the trend data and Police, U.S. Attorney and Social Services Administration expectations with respect to this category.

For the Children's Center, the projections are greatly complicated by a number of factors, including: (1) The numbers of those detained has risen very rapidly, while the capacity of the Receiving Home has been reduced to 90, by decision of Judge Harold Greene in a case decided on October 13, 1970, resulting in overflow of those detained into the Children's Center institutions and into the Youth Group Homes.

The over

Since the total

flow population is that population above 90. number detained as of the end of November was 352, over 260 detainees have to be held elsewhere than in the Receiving Home. (2) The backlog of juvenile cases, estimated at well over 2,000, is now being disposed of rapidly, and is causing an initial rapid rise in committed juveniles, which is expected to level off somewhat once the backlog is disposed of some time in early 1971 or late 1970. (3) There is no experience as yet with the requirement for a new category in juveniles, the persons in need of supervision (PINS) for which facilities must be found by February 1, 1971, when the Court Reform Act provisions creating this group take effect. (4) The new Act requires that there be no commingling at a time when the pressure on the four institutions and the Youth Group homes is very great, and when the flexibility of the institutions is not great (e.g., there is ample space for female children, but not enough for the large male population).

The Office of Crime Analysis, in its projections, indicates that if projections are made on the basis of the most recent data

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(fiscal 1969 and fiscal 1970, and part of fiscal 1971) the average number of admissions will be about 65 per month compared to the present average of about 40. If time spent per admission in the institution does not decrease, then the average daily population will increase by approximately 60 per cent at the end of fiscal 1973. The probability of commitment and of average length of sentence will probably increase, but the effects of such an increase are difficult to estimate. The Direction of such an effect is clear, however: an increased average daily population.

Graphs 27, 28, 29, and 30 following show admissions trends, proportion of felons, proportions of delinquents, and proportions of aftercare or probation, as charted by the Office of Crime Analysis on the basis of Social Services Administration data.

The Social Services Administration has charted admissions on the basis of more recent data for September, October, and November of 1970, showing a very rapid upturn in commitments. This is shown in Graph 31. It indicates that if present trends continue, admissions may double--reach 80 per month--by the end of fiscal year 1972.