NOTE:

Sub-population projected separately; thus may not agree exactly with totals. SOURCE: Department of Corrections.

Sentenced felons at the jail are stable.

SOURCE:

Office of Crime Analysis

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It should be noted that there is a fairly considerable difference between Table 1 and Table 2 on the projections for fiscal 1971 and 1972 with respect to the Youth Center, the Complex, and the community center populations. These are

due to some different ways of counting, some policy changes the Department of Corrections proposes to implement, and some proposals for added community correctional centers the Department of Corrections desires to have.

The complex population estimated on Table 2 by the Office of Crime Analysis indicates a total of 2,412 by the end of fiscal 1972, 495 for the Youth Center, and 807 for community correctional centers. The Department of Corrections does not disagree with the overall figures, but does plan to place approximately 300 to 400 of the sentenced adult felons in halfway houses or community correctional centers, provided that the authorization and the funds are made available for this purpose. Furthermore, the Department of Corrections shows in Table 3, following this page, that there are an estimated 135 Youth Act cases now in the Complex, largely because of overcrowding at the Youth Center, but also partially because of behavior problems of certain Youth Act cases in the Youth Center. Department also considers that the 93 persons in the community treatment center is far too many and represents overcrowding there. The total number of Youth Act cases in October, 1970 was 568. Roughly, half that number ought not be in that center but ought to be in the Youth Center. If half that number were

The

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transferred the total Youth Center population would be 568 less 47, or 521 as of October, 1970. The Department of

Corrections expects that figure to rise by approximately 100 to 61- by the end of fiscal year 1972. The difference between the Youth Center projections for fiscal 1972 in Table 1 and Table 2 is between 495 and 618.

The Department of Corrections makes a series of assumptions about the figure which ought to be stated here. First, there is agreement that the number of felony commitments of all kinds will double over the next two years. The Department of Corrections assumes that of this number, half to two-thirds will be Youth Act commitments. Youth Act commitments are now about 40 per cent of commitment, and the trend is up. The trend should continue because the felony offenders are getting younger and there is a new group of 16 and 17 year olds to be handled as adults under Youth Act sentences. Also, Corrections plans to seek to influence the courts in every way possible to use the Youth Act for sentences to those to whom it is applicable as a matter of District policy. Second, Corrections assumes that recommitments of probation and parole violators will hold at the level of about 30 per cent for probationers and 40 per cent for parolees over the next two years. Probation has produced no data on recidivism but this is a typical probation failure rate.