course, are sure to be carried by the Republicans, though, in Massachusetts, the republican majority of 78,727, in 1864, was, in 1867, reduced to 27,946.

Connecticut may be counted upon for the Democrats, since its republican majority of 2,406, in 1864, was, in 1867, changed to a democratic majority of 1,772.

The same is true of New York. It gave Mr. Lincoln a majority of 6,749, but in November, 1867, elected a democratic Secretary of State by a majority of 47,930.

Counting New Jersey and Maryland as democratic-which no one will gainsay-Pennsylvania is the next State in the list which has showed a change in political sentiment since 1864. In that year it returned for Mr. Lincoln a majority of 20,075, but in 1867 it returned a democratic majority of 927.

In the Western States, no important political changes were noticeable, save in Ohio, Kansas, Minnesota and Michigan. In 1867, the question of negro suffrage was presented to the electors of Ohio, and it was decided in the negative by 50,253 majority; at the same election, the Democrats obtained a majority in the Legislature, resulting in the election of Allen G. Thurman (Democrat), United States Senator, to succeed Benjamin F. Wade, whose term expires March 4, 1869. The republican candidate for Governor, however, was elected by the meager majority of 2,983. In 1864, Ohio gave Mr. Lincoln a majority of 59,586.

In Kansas, the question of negro suffrage was submitted to the people in 1867, and rejected by

a majority of 8,938, though Mr. Lincoln's majority in this State in 1864, was just 12,000, including the soldiers' votes, and without them, 10,400.

A similar question was presented to Minnesota in 1867, and a similar decision was rendered, the majority against negro suffrage being 1,288; at the same election a republican Governor was chosen by 5,344 majority. In 1864, Mr. Lincoln's majority was 7,615.

In Michigan a new constitution, involving negro suffrage, was submitted to the people in the spring of 1868, and it was rejected by 38,849 majority. It should be added that in each of the last three States just mentioned, the sole advocates of negro suffrage were Republicans, and its chief opponents were Democrats.

With these preliminary observations, we may advance to a more detailed examination of the probabilities of the issue of the present campaign; and in order to facilitate such an examination, the reader's attention is asked to the following table. The first two columns show the popular vote of each State for the Presidency in 1864; the last two, the vote of the same States at their last election for State officers. Some of these States, such as Indiana, have not held a general election since 1866; others, like New York, chose certain State officers in 1867; while still others, such as Connecticut, have held a general election in the present year. But in every instance is given the last vote of each State upon an issue in which party politics were clearly presented. For this reason the figures accredited to Ohio are those of the

vote for Governor in 1867, though the main issue of that election was negro suffrage (which was defeated by over 50,000 majority), and the Democrats secured a majority in the State Legislature. And here, it may be observed, that in every case of doubt the benefit of the doubt has been given to the Republicans. Subjoined is the table already mentioned:

1,811,754 2,223,035 1,985,291 2,032,201

A few very obvious deductions are to be made from this table, which the reader will not allow to escape him. They are:

1. That, whereas Mr. Lincoln's majority on the popular vote in 1864 was 411,281, the republican majority in these same States at the last general election in each, was only 46,910.

2. That, whereas it would have required a change of 205,641 votes (on the popular, not electoral vote) in 1864, from the republican to the democratic side, to have elected General McClellan instead of Mr. Lincoln, a like change of only 23,456 votes is all that is needful now to elect Horatio Seymour over General Grant in these States, supposing that in no State has there been any change in political sentiment since the holding of its last general election.

3. That, whereas the Republicans, with Mr. Lincoln as their standard-bearer, obtained a popular majority in twenty-two of the twenty-five States which voted in 1864, of these same States at their last general elections, they carried but fifteen, while the Democrats carried ten. It must be borne in mind that the remarkable change in political sentiment in this country since 1864 did not manifest itself to any great extent until the spring of 1867, since which time neither Illinois nor Indiana have held a general election, whence might be decided the political preference of their electors.

Attention is first asked to the following table, embracing a list of the Northern States, in which are included all but the ten Southern States (until recently denied representation in Congress) with the electoral vote to which each is entitled, and classified politically, in accordance with the preceding table.

[* NOTE.-The above table includes the States of Tennessee and Nebraska, which were not represented in the electoral college of 1864.]

It is clear, from the above, that were no changes to be made next fall in the votes as recorded in the first table, and were Tennessee and Nebraska to continue republican, Horatio Seymour would be defeated in these States by twenty electoral votes, a majority of their electoral votes being 124. And here comes an important element in the calculation which as yet has not been mentioned. The drift of public sentiment for the last year and a half or two years has been against the republican party and in favor of the democratic party. In the spring of 1867 the republican majority in New Hampshire was materially reduced, and less than a month later the Democrats carried Connecticut; in August they carried California; in October they elected their