POTATO PRODUCTION PER ACRE

The next chart (fig. 5) is on potato production per acre.

rather interesting one.

(The chart referred to is as follows:)

It is a

Dr. SHAW. I have in this case represented the research frontier by the highest yield in the Maine variety test year by year. You will notice that it has really gone up in recent years. In 1943 it was around 650 bushels of potatoes per acre, and in 1951 it was up to 940 bushels per acre. Now, the reason for this rise was primarily the control of insects and diseases. DDT was developed and its use controlled the insects that were spreading the diseases, enabling us to have a longer growing season and to really bring production up.

When you look at the Maine average production you will notice that there was a much more rapid followup behind the research advances than there was in the case of corn. There are two explanations for that, I think. One is related to an improved type of practice that was to be adopted. It was rather simple, merely a change of spraying practice. The second explanation is the acre value of the crop. Here again price comes in, Mr. Whitten. With higher acre value crops, you can expect farmers to use the new information more rapidly than where acre value is lower.

It is interesting that in the period from 1870 to 1950, the frontier for the average Maine farmer went up from 120 bushels to the acre to 480, a fourfold increase. Perhaps that is the best example that we can demonstrate in agriculture of an increase in average production resulting from adoption of improved practices.

There has been a rather significant advance in terms of United States average production of potatoes per acre, from around 120 to about 250. We don't know whether the research frontier for potato production per acre has reached the top and is going to start leveling off or whether it will keep on going. We have no way of predicting. I think this rather precipitate drop in 1952 was due to bad weather. In any event, when you consider the size of the spread, it seems to me that average potato production per acre will increase.

Mr. WHITTEN. Mr. Chairman, if I might interject here again. I suspect that talking about the relationship of price with the information you have given us, I am sure from the records that have been made before this committee in times past, that the treatment of the soil, soil practice, and soil conservation, largely follows the same course, that is, the price received enters into the care that is given to the land by the farmer.

Dr. SHAW. I think the situation that we have on fertilizer pretty well goes along with the other practices.

MILK PRODUCTION PER COW

My next chart (fig. 6) is for milk production per cow. (The chart referred to is as follows:)

Dr. SHAW. In order to get what a frontier might be in this case, took the average of the cows in the Dairy Herd Improvement Association producing more than 19,500 pounds of milk a year. This would be equivalent to about the top 300 cows in the Nation. You will observe that we have not broken any ceilings in the last 25 years as far as milk production per cow is concerned. In other words, the production from the top 300 cows was as good back in 1930 as it is today. When you consider all the cows in the Dairy Herd Improvement Association, about a million of them, there has been a significant advance since 1906. The record for the cows in the Dairy Herd Improvement Association at that time was about 5,000 pounds of milk a year; today it is 9,000 pounds of milk a year, a very significant advance.

In terms of the United States average production, which will include, of course, all the cows in the Dairy Herd Improvement Association, the rise has not been so significant but it is still a substantial increase, amounting, as I said earlier, to around 18 percent in the period from 1935 to the present time.

It seems to me that in this case we are making good use in an applied way of fundamental information that has been developed in earlier years with our Dairy Herd Improvement Association work and with artificial insemination and other improved practices. We are spreading the good blood we have around and also the good feeding methods. When you consider the gap between the top and bottom lines on the chart, and particularly when you consider the relationship of the United States average production to that of cows in the Dairy Herd Improvement Association, it seems to me that we can expect that milk production per cow will increase as we move into the future, even though we are running into a flat ceiling on top production. Eventually if we can't change that situaton, these two lower curves will level off but that leveling off is some time ahead of us. Mr. ANDERSEN. Doctor, in this connection, are we not up against about the same problem relative to increases in production per cow as we are in production per hen of eggs? You will come up gradually in the experimental work, until you reach the ceiling. It will be difficult to anticipate going beyond that because of the physical capabilities of the animal?

Dr. SHAW. Yes, but I feel sure that the ceiling that we now have is not the theoretical ceiling. I think that nutritionwise and breedingwise we can boost this ceiling, but we are up against the fact, as you say, that there is some ceiling beyond which we cannot go. is easier to understand in the case of eggs per hen, since you would not expect to go beyond 365 eggs per year.

It

Mr. ANDERSEN. Not unless you get them to have more than one egg a day.

Dr. SHAW. But there is some ceiling beyond which we could not push through.

Mr. ANDERSEN. Before we leave that milk-production chart, the big thing we are aiming at is to keep that lower line progressing upward as long as possible, is it not?

Dr. SHAW. Yes. And the various methods that we have further application of the fundamental knowledge, better educational techniques and price-will all help to move that line up.

Mr. ANDERSEN. Because that lower line will indicate whether or not research pays off?

COTTON PRODUCTION PER ACRE

Dr. SHAW. Yes. The next chart (fig. 7) I have is for cotton. (The chart referred to is as follows:)

Dr. SHAW. I selected South Carolina for the illustration of cotton production per acre since that State has had a 5-acre cotton-growing contest since 1926. It is a statewide contest in which they give a rather substantial cash prize for the State winner each year. In recent years, they have added to that State prize a sweepstakes prize. Whenever a record is obtained that is higher than any previous record, they give a sweepstakes prize that adds another cash incentive. With those incentives the top curve represents the record of the contest winner each year in South Carolina, starting before 1930, at around 1,200 pounds of lint per acre and going up very rapidly. In