PROGRESS MADE THROUGH RESEARCH PROGRAM

Dr. SHAW. The first thing I thought we ought to look at in terms of whether we are turning out practices in line with our needs is to review the progress that we have made. I have in this table a comparison of the productivity of principal agriculture commodities in 1935-39 and in the recent 5-year period, 1947-51.

(The table referred to follows:)

Changes in productivity rates 1935-39 to 1947-51: Principal agricultural commodities, United States averages

Dr. SHAW. You will notice that corn yields per acre have gone up 46 percent, wheat is up 26 percent, potatoes are up 95 percent, cotton 24 percent, soybeans 14 percent, and sugar beets for sugar 26 percent. Milk production per cow is up 18 percent, and eggs per layer are up 37 percent; pork production per sow farrowed is up 11 percent. If you combine all of the crops and livestock into single figures, crop yields per acre for all crops in the United States are up 32 percent, and livestock production per breeding unit is up 17 percent.

Those percentage increases have made up this equivalent of 64 million acres of agricultural improvement that we have mentioned. Now, I think it is important to compare this recent progress with progress over a longer period of time.

EGG PRODUCTION PER LAYER-UNITED STATES AVERAGE

In this chart (fig. 1), there is reflected United States average egg production per hen from 1909 to 1951.

(The chart referred to follows:)

Dr. SHAW. You will observe that there was some progress prior to 1935, but the major progress has been since 1935. In other words, we went from a little better than 80 eggs per hen to about 100 by 1935. But then we have increased that to 145 since.

On other commodities, the curves would not be exactly like this, but this is generally the picture we have in agriculture. We have a little better than held our own up to about 1935 and it has been since 1935 that we have made these rather tremendous increases in output per acre or per animal unit.

FUTURE TRENDS

If we consider merely what has happened in the past from the table that I have shown and this graph on egg production per hen, we would be inclined to be optimistic as to the future. If these increases can be continued at the rate we have been getting them, then certainly we will have adequate supplies in the years ahead.

How can we determine whether those will go on or not? It seemed to me that if by some means we could calculate what production could have been year by year, had you used all the information that was known at that time, that I could then tell whether research is maintaining its lead over practice; whether practice is catching up with research, or whether research is extending its lead. I have attempted to show that in this next chart (fig. 2).

(The chart referred to follows:)

Dr. SHAW. In the case of egg production per hen, I used as a measurement of what production could have been if you had used the known information to the fullest extent, the average of hens in the Connecticut egg-laying contest. Hens in this contest are shipped in from all over the country. The object of the contest is to break records. You would assume that these fellows were getting on to the new information about as rapidly as you could expect. Notice what happened. Starting in about 1920 and going up to about 1935, there was a marked increase in the average egg production of the hens in the Connecticut egg-laying contest. But since 1935 the frontier has not been extended. Now you would expect that if there were new information to be obtained, these fellows would be using it. You see another thing in this chart and that is that it is hard to hold production at these higher levels. For a good many of these years, production has been down below the line that represented the increase by 1937.

Let us consider the United States average production again in comparison with those records. It seems to me that it is somewhat apparent that the rather rapid rise that we have had from 1935 to 1949 is a reflection of the rise in the Connecticut contest with a time delay. The time delay in this case was about 15 years. The rise in the Connecticut contest started in 1920, and the United States average production started up about 1935.

Now what about our research lead? If you will look at the distance between these two curves in 1935, we had a lead that was much larger than the lead we have today. In other words, we have used up a large part of our research reserve. So the question arises, what is going to be the egg production per hen in the future?

I believe that the most likely thing which will happen to egg production per hen in the future is that it will follow this lower dotted projection on the United States average curve. It seems to me that it is going to level out in the years ahead. I don't claim that that line is precisely located. I drew it exactly the same distance from the top line as the two lines were apart prior to 1920. In other words, if egg production per hen does get as high as this lower projection, it will mean that the United States farmers, on the average, are making 100 percent utilization of the research advance that was represented in this period from 1920 to 1935 in the Connecticut egg laying contest.

I think it is a fairly optimistic statement to say that we will get 100 percent utilization of the new information. Can we do anything about it? I think we can. If we get that research curve away from what appears to be a plateau and start it moving up again, we could expect that the average production of eggs in the United States would not necessarily have to level off. It could increase again, but the increase would be delayed behind the research increase about the same as it was between 1920 and 1935. The two dotted projections on the United States average curve are the two possible routes that we have to travel as far as egg production per hen in the United States is concerned. We will not continue at the rate of increase that we have been experiencing in the past. That was ruled out back in 1935 when the research curve ceased going up.

CORN PRODUCTION PER ACRE

Is that a unique situation for egg production per hen or do we have other similar examples? I would like to consider the case of corn production per acre, as shown in the next chart (fig. 3).

(The chart referred to is as follows:)

Dr. SHAW. In order to represent the research frontier in this case, I have taken the highest yield in the Iowa variety test year by year. This is experimental production on small plots. The solid broken line represents the highest yield obtained year by year in the Iowa variety test. I have drawn a smooth curve through the topmost points. What I have been intending to do is represent a research frontier,