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The next chart (fig. 9) illustrates the magnitude of this change in the distribution of the crime susceptible group. In 1960 about 20 percent of the people were 14 to 29. This percentage will grow until 1975 when this group will constitute 26.6 percent of the population.
By looking at the summary numbers on the left we can see that from 1960 to 1975 the total population will grow 59 percent; while the 14 to 29 age group will grow 110 percent.
It is clear then that the crime susceptible age group is growing twice as fast as the population.
Any extrapolation or predictions that we make regarding crime and delinquency should be related to this crime-prone age group.
We can see because of the skewed nature of the population histogram that California has had and will have significant crime problems.
This is the investigatory phase that the systems engineer looks at. This consists of looking around and observing what data are available and determining how it can be organized.
There is one other piece of data that we look at and that is the cost in California of the system that we use to prevent and control crime. Now the system we use in California is the system of police, sheriffs, probation, judges, district attorneys, public defenders, parole officers,
prisons, and other institutions. This is the mechanism that we use to prevent and control crime.
The bill for this system in California is $600 million a year. We expect that in the next 5 years this system will cost us $312 billion, if we adhere to our present policy.
Senator NELSON. What period of time?
The next slide (fig. 10) shows our approach to looking at this system of criminal justice, this system which we use to control and prevent crime. We constructed a decision network, and the one I have represented here is the juvenile summary decision network. The decision network totally is more complex than this, but this is the summary network, and each one of the balloons on this chart represents a de cision that is made or could be made about an individual as he encounters our system of criminal justice.
On the far left you can see that an officer observes a delinquent act and does something about it.
On the right you can see that an individual is released from parole
This net then encompasses all the possible paths that an individual may take through our system of criminal justice, from the time he commits a criminal act until he is again released to society through parole, probation, not guilty, dismissed at the arresting station, or whatWe constructed this decision net with the view that the individuals making these decisions would require information in order to make the decision.
Any information system that can be used within the system of criminal justice should accomplish or should be designed so that the decisionmaker at each one of these points has the information he needs in order to make the decision.
Now as we study the system of criminal justice further we may be able to eliminate some of the decision points. Decisions perhaps are made in one place and unmade somewhere else. These anomalies can be discovered with an analysis of this net.
The next chart (fig. 11), illustrates a block diagram, which is the next system engineering step after the construction of the decision net.
This is the engineer's worksheet for the construction of the model, which you have heard about today, and this is the model of the system of criminal justice.
This diagram shows all of the flow paths and all of the jurisdictions which we encounter or which a criminal encounters in moving through the system of criminal justice.
We, in a very short period of time, managed to make some simplifying assumptions and put this block diagram, this analytical mathematical model on an analog computer, in order to obtain some system type results.
There were certain simplifying assumptions made, but I will very quickly show you the engineer's analog computer model diagram (fig. 12), which was used in the study. This is the worksheet that the engineer uses to model the system of criminal justice. Each of the boxes represents the split and flow of individuals as they flow through this system.
Each of the T's and C's represent times and costs, which occur within the present system of criminal justice, so as the machine is set up it makes it possible to calculate some things that are not easy to calculate with pencil and paper.
I will illustrate a few of the calculations that were made. The first one and perhaps the most interesting on the next slide, figure 13, is what we call career costs. These are costs that the taxpayers must pay on the average for each offender as he flows through the system. Our present system of criminal justice-police courts, prisons, parole, probation presently cost us this much as a function of these offense groups.
Now there is something to be learned already, even from this simplified mathematical model, about our present system of criminal justice. There are rather some unexpected things we can learn. I think that we have known for some time that the forger check writer is a nuisance and is very much a repeater. He recidivates frequently, but perhaps what we didn't realize is that these individuals on the average in the State of California today with our present policies are costing us $16,900 over their lifetime. This is the cost of processing each of these people.
Likewise with the adult narcotic offender, $10,900, and perhaps down to adult homicide, in which we have murders second and manslaughter, to $5,800 figure.
The questions the systems engineer can ask society is do you want to allocate your resources in this way. This is what society is doing today. Is this what we want to do?
The next slide, figure 14, illustrates another use to which we put this first system model. This illustrates the category of things that we discussed earlier today. What if we made some changes in our present system of criminal justice? What would the results be!
In this very simplified model we used per capita total cost as a measure, and we took the operating point for the average adult felon merely for illustrative purposes. We showed our present operating point and what would happen if we changed things that are perhaps open for us to change within the system.
For example, if we change the fraction of sentence in prison before parole, which is the line rising to the right, from its present value of