« ÎnapoiContinuați »
were monitored through monthly progress reports and periodic oral briefings and discussions in Sacramento and Los Angeles. A preliminary report was submitted to the Division of Highways for review and comment at the end of August 1965.
The work itself was divided into eight tasks. While several of the tasks ran concurrently, all were programmed to feed together when required. Management controls were employed to assure cost and scheduling goals were maintained. The procedures and methodologies recommended were actually tested and verified against known historical fact in a sample problem.
THE SYSTEMS APPROACH In a broad sense, the primary benefit from applying the systems approach stems from the inquisitiveness of the systems analyst. Rather than accepting the apparent problem and its cause, the systems analyst is trained to trace down all aspects of the problem, gauge the inter-relationships between elements of the problem, and study the sequential interactions and ramifications resulting from adjustments to any given element. Having identified the total problem and the attendant influencing considerations, the systems analyst is then in a position to define possible solutions which will allow specific objectives to be met in a timely and efficient-manner without adversely affecting other goals. Op nal solutions, as well as options within a given solution, are then analyzed and compared, leading to the selection of that approach which meets the requirements and best serves all objectives.
Systems management provides the environment enabling persons of widely direrse professional disciplines to work in concert in the comprehensive analysis of the overall problem. Having defined the problem and its solution, systems management employs techniques to cost, schedule, coordinate and control a development program, with the total job broken into discrete, manageable elements. Modern computer techniques are heavily utilized to handle large amounts of data and perform calculations, allowing broad and penetrating analyses to be made quickly. Computers also enable "real life" events and responses to be simulated economically in the laboratory.
RECOMMENDATIONS In the specific case of the California transportation study design effort, the systems approach led to the recommendation for a transportation planning study based upon a comprehensive, integrated computer simulation program. The design for this computer program, as submitted to the State, enables both people and commodity transportation demands to be projected and vectored within the State, as well as the measurement of movements into, out of and across California. Within this framework, the computer program is sized to allow all conceivable networks and modes of transportation (land, sea, air, or novel) to be evaluated and compared for operating and economic performance in the handling of the transportation demand. The residual influence of optional transportation modes and networks upon the economy of the State, as well as upon the distribution and attendant requirements of the population and its supporting activities, can be projected. Further, the impact of technological change can be tested, as can that of possible catastrophes such as floods or earthquakes.
Apart from some widely accepted conclusions regarding the severe transportation problems to be faced in California, the study design effort uncovered many unfolding technical advances in transportation. While these add to the complexity of, and underscore the need for, transportation planning, they also represent major opportunities.
An equally important, but less obvious, impact on transportation may stem from technological advances in other fields. The ability to economically distribute water and power over large areas, coupled with greatly improved communications and life support systems, will allow people to live and work nearly everywhere. As the population grows, historic demographic patterns may change from high-density concentrations to a lower-density spread. While the difference in transportation requirements is obviously significant, nothing has been done to measure the real meaning; nor has anything been done to test the desirability of such a change. If found to be desirable, transportation could be used as one of the major levers of change. Transportation and economic development planning to date has been generally predicated on the high-density
pattern of demographic growth-more people in the same places they are today. The study recommended by North American Aviation includes testing such options or possibilities against the objectives of the State of California.
In order to facilitate these analyses, six major sub-routines were recommended : three (population, land use and econometric) which work in concert to define and project the possible environments in which transportation must function; one which extracts the transportation demands from these environments and veetors the flows between geographic sectors; one which simulates the operations (the handling of demand) by optional transportation modes and networks (or mixes thereof); and one which evaluates the results against many criteria, including cost/benefit, and provides feedback loops allowing changes to be reflected throughout the complete analysis.
Generally, transportation studies to date have been limited to either people or cargo demands and have presupposed the mode to be applied or have compared only the operating and economic performance of two alternative systems. Most project transportation demands by extending historical demand trends rather than projecting the total environment and factors which might influence trends in some fashion. None have attempted to measure the impact of the subject systems upon other types of activities or requirements in the total economic and social development of an area.
The recommended study calls for an analytical investigation to the year 2015 AD, with projections reached by a series of incremental time steps from the base year. This helps to identify the period of usefulness of a given transportation system or network and isolates the point at which any divergence from desired results begins. Long range planning studies to date rarely exceed analytical periods beyond 1980, reaching their terminal year in a single step.
Finally, the computer models have been universally structured for ease of application to areas other than California. With modifications, the specified techniques could be used to analyze and plan facets of economic development other than transportation.
Senator NELSON. Our next witness is Mr. Lehan of Space-General Corp. You may proceed as you wish, Mr. Lehan.
STATEMENT OF FRANK LEHAN, PRESIDENT, SPACE-GENERAL
CORP., EL MONTE, CALIF.; ACCOMPANIED BY JOHN KUHN,
Mr. LEHAN. Senator, I would like to echo the sentiments previously expressed. It has been our privilege to take part in the State of California experiment, and I think perhaps we had one of the more difficult of the tasks, at least from an engineering standpoint.
Our task was to take a look at the crime and delinquency problem.
The methods of reducing the costs of crime and delinquency to the State of California and the citizens of the State with the cost being defined very broadly to include, as far as we are able to, human costs as well as monetary costs.
I would like to insert a short summary at this point in the record.
SUMMARY OF STUDY ON PREVENTION AND CONTROL OF CRIME AND DELINQUENCY
PREPARED BY SPACE-GENERAL CORPORATION, EL MONTE, CALIF.
Under contract to the State of California through the Youth and Adult Corrections Agency, Space-General Corporation undertook a systems analysis and cost/effectiveness study of the California system of criminal justice. Of sixmonths duration, this study represented the initial attempt to apply the techniques of systems engineering to the problems of crime and delinquency. The study was defined to cover the broad spectrum of criminal justice, including
local law enforcement, the courts, probation, juvenile and adult institutions, and pa role. The objectives of this study were to:
Analyze the California system of criminal justice utilizing the techniques of systems engineering and operations analysis, and thereby explore the feasibility of application of these techniques to social problems.
Recommend a California program directed toward more effective prevention and control of crime and delinquency. The study has resulted in an increased understanding of the interrelations existing between the functions of various jurisdictions. Examples of techniques used and the findings evolved will follow in the testimony text. Generally, how. ever, there presently exists a lack of information which must be overcome if complete understanding of the objectives and operations of the system of criminal justice is to be achieved. This lack is in the understanding of relations existing between system expenditures and system performance. It is primarily because of this gap in our knowledge that certain programs are being proposed. In a sense, we do not accurately know how to allocate resources to reduce crime.
California now spends about $600 million per year for the prevention and control of crime and delinquency, combining state and local costs. The program which is recommended here will require an estimated annual expenditure of less than three percent of that amount. Cost offsets expected to occur over the duration of the program will reduce the total cost to the state at the end of five years to less than that required for the continuation of present policy.
The study resulted in a program directed toward an improved system of criminal justice in California. The major elements of this proposed program are:
A continuing systems engineering analysis of the management and the effectiveness of the California system of criminal justice.
The development of an information system linking together various agencies of criminal justice and being capable of evaluating program and system effectiveness through collection, storage, and processing of appropriate data.
A systematic study of persons involved in criminal activity and identification of crime susceptible groups.
Carefully selected prevention programs directed towards the susceptible offender groups.
Technical assistance in the apprehension and processing of offenders.
Development of more effective methods in the management and treatment of offenders with attendant studies of subsequent behavior and costs.
The development and training of manpower to carry out the program.
The development of public support and understanding through information and community education programs.
A comprehensive master plan which projects over a five-year period the scheduling and costs of the program. Associated with each group of related programs is a research effort which will continually examine new and novel approaches to each applicable area.
Mr. LEHAN. I would like to introduce John Kuhn, who headed our study, and will make our presentation.
I think we found, as a corporation, the study to be educational and beneficial, and I am completely convinced that the techniques that have been used by the other three contractors and ourselves are applicable even in the very difficult area of crime and delinquency.
John, perhaps you would like to take over. Mr. Kuhn. Senator, as you know, we had a rather difficult problem of applying the systems engineering techniques to prevention and control of crime and delinquency.
See figure 1 for title of our study.
We elected in this study to approach the problem analytically and to demonstrate that the quantitative and numerical techniques, which are used in engineering, could indeed be valuable in the study of crime and delinquency.
We approached the systems study in the sense that you heard several people mention today. For example, we had an investigation phase in which we reviewed the currently available data. We constructed a mathematical model, a very simple one, to be sure, because of the limited time period, and we proposed a future program, which we felt would help solve the problem of crime and delinquency.
In this case our objectives are quite clear. We want to reduce the cost of crime and the crime rate in our State.
We can go through the system analysis that we have performed now. It is quite analytical, but I will go through it, and you will be able to see the systems engineering approach to this difficult problem.
The first group of slides is part of the investigation phase. We were interested in the extent of the dimensions of crime in California, so we looked at the felon crime trend over the past few years. We did not go back in history to the thirties or the twenties, because our
culture changes rapidly. We went back 5 years, because we feel that in this short period the culture stays constant enough to give a true reflection of crime trends.
We calculated our crime statistics on a basis slightly different from what is usually reported. Usually crime is reported on the basis of total population. As you will see a little later, this is very misleading in California, because the population in California does not follow a classic mortality table distribution.
In this particular chart (fig. 2) felonies reported in the thousands over the 5-year period show that on a population age 10 to 64 basis,
felonies reported do increase; the percentage going from a little bit over 2 percent, 2.35 percent, to 2.74 percent. This is for all reported crime.
When violent crime is considered, and this statistic is based on the age 14 to 29 population, which is the more violence-prone group, we see that the statistic does not increase over the 5-year period, but goes from 1.2 to 1.19 percent. These represent reports and are very much a function of the California reporting system. Our system is not completely adequate, but this is the best information we have available.