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4 years to do that. However, the total cost of this effort should be less than $10 million, about $2 million a year.

Incidentally, that $10 million is less than a mile of urban freeway.
That is our message, sir.
Senator NELSON. I thank you very much for your presentation.
Do you have any questions?
Mr. MILLEN SON. Yes, sir.

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Mr. Jones, you mentioned that this project which you just explained so well, was also done with the Bureau of Public Road funds.

Mr. Jones. No, sir; I didn't say that. I said in cooperation with the Bureau of Public Roads.

Mr. MILLENSON. No Bureau of Public Roads funds were used ?

Mr. JONES. I don't know. You will have to ask the State. I know the Sacramento office of the Bureau of Public Roads was involved in the writing of the requested proposals and selection of the contractor and monitoring this monthly as we moved ahead.

Gentlemen from the Bureau of Public Roads in Washington, very excellently qualified gentlemen, including a doctor of philosophy, came near the end of our study within the last month or two, and spent some time with us. They have told us that they received one of the first copies of our report and have evaluated the report and made their recommendations to the State and the Department of Commerce, but I do not know what source the $100,000 was secured from.

Senator Nelson. If after going through your testimony we have some additional question, can we write you and have you submit any answers to the record ?

Mr. Jones. Yes. Senator NELSON. Any more questions? Thank you very much. Your prepared statement will be inserted in the record at this point along with your study.

(The prepared statement of Mr. Jones along with the study referred to follow :)


NORTH AMERICAN AVIATION, INC., Los ANGELES, CALIF. It is axiomatic that the future holds direct and indirect opportunities in the field of transportation and that they will appear at an increasing rate. To enable a wise selection from among these opportunities, many questions must be asked and answered. But before the right questions can be posed, some appreciation of the foreseeable opportunities and problems bearing on transportation is necessary.

Transportation technology is advancing rapidly. Unparalleled opportunity is unfolding for movement above, on and below the surface of land and sea. With proper planning California can realize timely benefits in an orderly fashion from transportation systems which are swift and convenient, economical and attractive, efficient while not marring:

Trains gliding through tubes at the speeds of today's jetliners, possibly far below surface streets and countryside;

Aircraft that rise vertically from small urban pads, woodland clearings and mountain meadows, and from the tops of buildings and then move forward at 400 mph for hundreds of miles;

Ships that "fly" a few feet over the waves at several hundred miles per hour, only to nestle gently to a dock where they will exchange hundreds of thousands of pounds of containerized cargo in short times comparable today's airplanes;

Trucks or buses that ride a cushion of air on guideways, moving between cities at several times today's cruising speeds and within cities on wheels at slow speeds;

Other vehicles, public and private, passenger and cargo, which can traverse water and virtually unprepared land with almost equal ease;

Pipelines which can deliver produce from farm to distant markets in a matter of hours ;

Virtually accident-free electronic freeways, automatically guiding and spacing individual vehicles which do not emit noxious gases ;

Urban transit systems offering door-to-door convenience, or subsurface transit systems with average speeds between stations far above those of the most modern systems today;

Tunneling methods which, by 1985, will lend economic justification to underground installation of transportation networks, parking and transfer sites, particularly in urban areas where surface acreage is now at a premium.

In analyzing future transportation requirements, technologies which affect where people might live, work and play must also be examined, since the desires and demands of people create the need for transportation.

While the supporting ingredients for modern living-water, power, communications, employment, and others—are not as yet available in vast regions of California, the ability to widely distribute these things will become technically and economically feasible in the next half-century:

Water desalinization plants, efficient, reliable, automatic and of long life, could be pumping water to California's desert regions in ten to twenty years. Low cost pipelines, suspended of their own weight in off-shore waters, could transport fresh water from as far away as Alaska without ditching, tunneling or extensive pumping. In the distant future, climate and weather control may be a reality.

Electrical power, broadcast in much the same fashion as a popular radio program, may be instantly available everywhere in the State in thirty years. Nuclear electric generators, portable, reliable, of long life and fully automatic, will provide the interim means of making electrical power widely available. Eventually, the electric power requirements of each household may be met by individual nuclear units.

New sanitation and waste disposal methods may break the shackles these necessities have historically imposed.

Advanced communication devices and systems will enable, for many kinds of employment, almost instantaneous transfer of data and information to a small work area in the employee's home, perhaps hundreds of miles distant from the central office. No longer will it be necessary to move, twice daily, thousands of people and conveyances into and out of a central area. The work will move instead. The employee need no longer live within twenty miles of the office; the hours once spent commuting can be used for recreation, child-care or other fulfilling pursuits.

Automation will bring higher productivity and a shorter working day. The office employee of tomorrow may well be able to schedule his five hours of work anytime during a twelve-hour period, perhaps within the confines of his own home in the foothills of the Sierras or on the cost of Northern California.

The oceanography laboratories of today may become mines and oilfields tomorrow, with a high level of activity on and under California's off-shore waters.

Therefore, we will have the ability to roll back and almost eliminate existing restraints on habitable space in the next twenty to fifty years. However, the full potential of this capability cannot be realized, nor all the benefits enjoyed, until the supporting technologies are packaged with timely transportation : there will be few people where there is no transportation, no convenient way to more about or to ship or receive the things produced or required by people.

Appreciating the possibilities for the future, consideration should be given to the ways in which these opportunities might be exploited and applied in California. Today's trends could be allowed to continue, with new technologies applied to the support of large, high-density super-cities. Alternately, the trend could be reversed and the population distributed in the Sierra foothills, irrigated deserts and along presently remote sections of wooded coastline. Other options lie between these two, and all have different transportation requirements: different objectives, different systems, different networks. Which is best for California, her communities and her citizens?

Analysis and judgment will provide the answers and decisions. Long-range planning will guide the transition and insure maximun benefit. The study described in this report will facilitate the decision making and uncover means of transition to these future systems.

The troubles of transportation today are symptoms of major problems tomorrow, if left untended. Shortcomings in the total transportation system of the State should not be tolerated, and obsolescence cannot be afforded, for transportation moves people and goods and in so doing moves the economy. If transportation fails to keep pace, the economy of California will slow, growth and prosperity will taper off, communities and regions will not realize their full potential, and individuals will be denied opportunities to enrich their personal lives.

In California today the single major transportation headache is that of urban congestion, mostly within but also out of and into the large metropolitan areas. The side effects of this problem are far reaching. For instance, by lack of lowpriced convenient transportation, people of low economic standing are forced to work near home, and depressed regions within our cities are kept depressed. The affluence of other areas does not aid the residents of depressed regions.

Two primary factors have led to urban congestion : first, the increased number of trips within the metropolitan area, caused by many factors; and second, a lack of choice in urban transportation in that only one, the automobile, offers flexibility, convenience and seemingly some measure of economy of time and money to the individual. Congestion and competition for space will grow so long as these two primary considerations prevail. The automobile has an apparent economic advantage attractive to most of the population. To the economically depressed segment of the population, however, the automobile becomes a luxury which cannot be fitted into a daily work routine without undue hardship.

The lack of attractive options for intercity and intermediate range transportation is another problem evidenced today. Two passenger modes, private car and commercial air, and one cargo mode, truck, are heavily utilized in comparison to rail, bus, pipeline, ship, etc. Even the more attractive options have some well known disadvantages that cannot be taken lightly.

The San Diego family which would like to spend a week amidst the scenic splendor of Northern California has two basic options, drive or fly. Driving would be most economical and convenient, but would consume four of the nine days available for the round trip, returning the family to San Diego late on a Sunday night, physically and emotionally exhausted. Flying would be expensive, particularly if car rental is included, and would limit the accessories to be carried and hence the activities to be pursued. This family will find it easier to stay at home, disappointed that it will not enjoy new experiences.

The Escondido avocado grower presently trucks his produce to the San Francisco area. His fruit cannot be fully tree-ripened, since he must allow for ripening while en route to the housewife's kitchen in Richmond. As a result. it lacks a fullness of flavor and commands a lesser price than it otherwise might: however, the housewife must pay an artificially high price inflated by yesterday's transportation and handling methods between orchard and market.

These are two typical examples of how a lack of attractive options in intercity or intermediate range transportation is today diminishing our opportunities to receive the maximum benefit of California living.

Already, California's recreation and transportation needs are clashing. Асcessible recreation areas overflow with humanity while vast potential recreation areas remain inaccessible and virtually unused. Without exception, transportation systems in use today would require, individually or in combination, alteration of portions of natural landscape within potential recreation areas. Rightsof-way through already heavily utilized and scarred recreation areas would have to be expanded to handle through traffic, since, in some cases, these areas lie between the major urban centers and untouched potential recreation acreage. In short, transportation systems which served so well yesterday, and are relied upon today, show indications of being obsolete for tomorrow's requirements.

Among the other problems which directly affect the functioning and efficiency of transportation in California are: the limitations of coverage and accessibility of other than highway-based systems; the less than complete coordination and integration between the various modes of transport; and the bottlenecks created by outdated transfer and handling procedures. While these difficulties are not universal, they generally prevail.

Worthy of mention is the overall growth in transportation demand that can be expected in the future. Driven by a rising population, compounded by increasing disposable income, higher productivity and more leisure time, transportation demand for people may double within the next twenty-five years, increase five-fold within fifty years; commodity transportation may triple in twenty-five years and exceed seven times today's rate within fifty years. In addition, based on projections of population and improved efficiency of land use, the utilized surface area of California will grow from 51 per cent today to over 60 per cent within twenty-five years and to over 70 per cent within fifty years. In short, there will be a much greater demand for movement, but less available surface area on which to move.

Without sufficient insight, planning and action, the troubles of today could grow to be more costly, perplexing and far-reaching tomorrow. If the udesirable impact of these problems is to be reduced or eliminated, the initial effort must be undertaken now. The planning and provision of timely transportation systems and networks will be a vital element, greatly influencing our way of life, our economy and our total environment. The study described in this report is designed to contribute to the State's objectives through the transportation planning phase.

Although the transportation system of California may be plagued by troubles today, these need not grow unchecked for lack of preventive or corrective op portunity. As already pointed out, the rapid pace of technical advancement brings with it the ingredients to avoid pending dilemmas. However, the proper ingredients will not just come together in a timely and least costly manner unless made to do so by wise decisions reached, in part, through analytical longrange planning studies.

The importance of these studies and the subsequent decisions cannot be overemphasized, for they will, in turn, commit the society of California to a course of action requiring large investments of time and resources, influence the vigor of California's economy, and bear upon the satisfaction each citizen experiences in his daily life.

Done properly, the task of analyzing and planning California's future transportation requirements is very complex. Just as transportation needs are influenced by many things, so does transportation influence many things. Transportation goes where the people and industry go, but the freeway system has shown the opposite is also true, that the direction of growth can be guided by transportation. But, people and industry require water, power, waste disposal,

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education, communication and other public systems and services as well. These must also be provided.

How much industry and how many people will there be in 1990? in 2015? Where might they be distributed; how will the land be used ? How much, for what purposes and between which points will people travel? How many goods will be produced and consumed in California, and from where and to where will they be transported? How much and what will be imported and exported by or through the State? How much land will recreation require, and how much should be devoted to transportation? What will be the likely characteristics, performance, costs, revenues and taxes of each of the possible future land, sea and air transportation systems and networks? How will these systems interface, and what will be the coordination and integration require ments? How will better communications influence transportation demand? What are the long-range budgeting and legislative implications?

These are significant questions requiring timely answers. Each case should be analyzed under several sets of assumptions and the sensitivity to these assumptions measured. Each case will necessarily draw upon quantities of data if it is to reflect all the essential factors.

At present, there is no operating device that can encompass this task in a single frame of reference or can master its complexity and handle the data and computations required. But such a device can be made available and can be practically applied.

The systems analysis approach was developed to master the predictable, complex problems of the Nation's aerospace and defense activities. As shown in this report, it can be applied to the total transportation problem. The systems analysis study described in these volumes includes building that planning device needed to provide the quantitative measurements that will support human judgments and decisions. This device would be constructed by specialists in many fields and would incorporate advance analytical techniques. It would be flexible, could accept a range of assumptions, and would display options.

The capacity and capabilities of modern computer and display equipment form a major element of this planning device. Many bits of data, together with the appropriate mathematical formulas and relationships, are inserted into the computer. After presentation of the problem to be analyzed with the assumptions to be used, the computer would perform the mechanics of the many computations required. Results would be printed out in words, numbers and graphs, supplemented by visual displays which could be copied and retained.

The other major element of this planning device would be the humans who compile the formulas, relationships and programs, who pose the problems and assumptions, and who must apply judgment to the results, make decisions and implement actions. The computer network simply makes the analysis practical. By handling large amounts of data and performing computations quickly, it provides the decision-maker a wider and more penetrating frame of reference upon which to base his decisions.

The study design described in this report calls for the application and development of appropriate mathematical models”, coupled with the use of computer simulation procedures. Aggregated, they can be viewed as a planning device. The "modeling" approach simply identifies and reduces the essential elements of an actual problem to a simplified representation, with the basic relationships between elements expressed by mathematical formulas.

This technique has a number of advantages: first, by testing prediction techniques and accuracy against specified historical fact, confidence is attained in the understanding of the problem; second, it serves as a laboratory enabling the investigator to rapidly build exhaustive experience with the problem by arbitrarily changing assumptions and conditions ; third, by manipulating the controllable factors, computer solutions which "best" meet desired results can be obtained.

The first step in this process is to define the role which transportation plays in the overall picture of California activities. In the study design, this has been approached by examination of California as a functional “system.”

When considering California as a system, one must first appreciate that it is only one of a number of similar systems interconnected to form a large network extending through the United States to encompass the entire world. This done, it becomes readily apparent that what occurs in California depends to some degree upon what transpires throughout the entire world. Therefore, any study of the California system and its future transportation requirements must of necessity investigate activities which might take place beyond the State's borders. This

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