TABLE 83.-Rate of Loss (Killed and Missing in Action) per Operational Heavy Bomber Mission

*Figure arrived at by subtracting the number killed and missing plus those otherwise "lost" between missions, from the preceding mission.

**Average percent per mission.

divergence from the pattern is explained by frostbite in which 80 percent of the cases were among enlisted men.

A detailed analysis of Air Force battle casualties is indicated in order to show the exact nature of such casualties. Although complete data for the whole period of the war do not exist, a representative period-July 1944 through December 1944-is chosen for a breakdown of the casualties for the Eighth Air Force. These data are shown in Table 81. It can be seen from this table that the chief category of casualties was that of missing in action. Of the number killed in action, approximately 74 percent were killed in aircraft accidents. Likewise, aircraft accidents were responsible for the greatest number of personnel injured in action, accounting for 358 out of a total of 1,035 for the 6-month period. To determine how serious these losses were, it would be necessary to consider them in relation to the number of combat crews dispatched. Table 82 shows the loss rates for the same period per 10,000 combat crew members dispatched.

Lt. Colonel Lyons also made a study in the theater of attrition rates of 2,085 initial combat crew members. The flying personnel used in the study were members of the 91st, 94th, 305th, 306th, 381st, and 384th Bombardment Groups. Of this number, 34 were eliminated for various reasons before the first mission, leaving 2,051, personnel for the study. After each mission the number killed in action, missing in action, and those lost for other reasons were noted. Table 83 shows the number of personnel starting each mission, the number killed in action or missing in action, and the percentage of those killed in action or missing in action of the total number exposed. For example, of the 2,051 crew members starting the first mission, 93 or 4.5 percent were either killed or missing in action.

Of the original group of 2,085 combat crew members, 559 or 26.8 percent completed all 25 missions, 1,195 or 57.3 percent were either killed or missing in action, and 331 or 15.8 percent were lost for various reasons, such as wounded or injured in action, disease, death, or administrative removal from flying. The average percentage of killed and missing in action for a mission was 3.9.

The percentage of the number killed in action and missing in action is more meaningful if the data are broken down into mission groups showing the average percentage of losses for such groups. This breakdown is shown in Table 84. From this table it can be seen that the rate of loss for heavy bomber crew remained practically the same for the first ten missions. After the tenth mission, however, the decrease was apparent. Col. Joseph Berkson, 338 Chief, Statistics Division, Air Surgeon's Office, making use of the study by Colonel Lyons, de

TABLE 84.-Number Killed and Missing in Action

Mission group:

I to 5..

6 to 10.

II to 15.

16 to 20.

21 to 25.

339

Average percent

(Lost)

5.4

5.3

4. I

3.5

I. 2

veloped some tables showing the trend of loss rate with experience in successive missions. Data in Table 85 include for each mission the loss rate in percentage, the number lost, the number surviving out of 1,000 flyers starting first missions, total number of missions yet to be accomplished by the survivors, and the mean number of missions yet to be accomplished by the survivors. It should be noted that the flyers with, say, ten missions accomplished their missions on different dates and over different targets. The only thing therefore in common with the personnel on their tenth mission was the fact that it was the tenth mission for each. The same held true for all the other missions.

The rates of loss in Table 86 show a general downward trend. Certain statistical extrapolations may be made from the data in this table. The mean number of missions for all members of the group completing their experience was 14.72. It is possible to calculate the expected number of missions for any group of survivors at the end of any mission. For example, at the end of the fifth mission there will be 744 survivors. To find the average number of missions performed by this group at the end of their 25th mission, refer to column 6 of the table, where it is shown that 13.83 missions yet to be accomplished, would give 18.83 the average number of missions for this group at the end of its experience. Like computations may be made at the end of any specific mission. The probability of completing various missions may be ascertained from column 4. For example, personnel would have a fifty-fifty chance of completing the fourteenth mission; a 41-percent chance of completing the twentieth mission; and a 35.8percent chance of completing the twenty-fifth mission. This information. would permit the establishment of an operational tour based on any chance of completing the tour which might be desired. Column 5 shows the total number of missions for the original 1,000 personnel after finishing their tour of duty, which is 14,724. Should the number of missions for a tour be set at fourteen, according to column 5, 4,698 misions would be sacrified; however, a tour of fourteen missions would offer a 50-percent chance of survival. Similar calculations could be made at the end of any mission.

TABLE 85.-Life Table" for Group of 1,000 Bombers Starting Sorties, Lost at Specified Rates in Successive Missions, and Completing Tour at End of 25 Missions

[Rates obtained from experience of Eighth Air Force and smoothed]

Other important calculations could be made from the data; namely, the number of replacements required and the level of experience of the aircrews in successive missions. For instance, of the 1,000 crewmen of the initial mission, 6.2 percent were lost, resulting in the necessity of replacing 62 aircrew members. For the second mission, 938 individuals had one mission while 62 had none. Thus, the level of experience for those who started on the second mission was 0.94. Similar calculations could be made to determine the level of experience of the crew members at the beginning of each mission. At the beginning of the twenty-fifth mission, 367 individuals had flown 24 missions, but the other 633 members had flown a less number of missions, the average for the group of 1,000 being 15.47 missions. Inasmuch as all aircrew members were replaced at the end of the twenty-fifth mission, the twenty-sixth mission represented a lower level of experience, resulting in an increase of the loss rate from 3.6 for the twenty-fifth mission to 4.9. The average level of experience of this group was 7.03.

The total number of Air Force casualties for the European Theater of Operations was 63,410.30 This number represents 52 percent of total Air Force casualties in all theaters. If the casualties of the Mediterranean Theater of Operations are added to those of the European Theater of Operations, it will

TABLE 86.-Air Force Casualties in All Theaters (December 1941– August 1945)