The returns from those telegrams would obviously bring forth the consul's best estimate of the number of alien fathers, mothers, wives, and minor children of the nationality of the country to which. the consul was accredited.

Now, we have no consul in Russia, as you know. The Russians that we come in contact with are in European countries on the edge of Russia. As soon as the replies were received we found that we had no estimate regarding the Russian-born fathers, mothers, wives, and children of resident aliens. So a second telegram on February 25 was sent to the American consuls at Constantinople, Belgrade, Berlin, Bucharest, Helsingfors, Kovno, Riga, Sofia, Tallinn, and Warsaw, as follows:

Telegraph immediately for information House Immigration Committee your best estimate of numbers of aliens now residing in country to which you are accredited who would be involved in any legislation affecting fathers, mothers, husbands, wives, and unmarried minor children of Russian-born aliens now residing in United States.

The consuls, on receipt of that, would proceed in various ways according to the information in their records. It is impossible for me, of course, to say exactly what was done in all cases, but from two years' experience as consul in general at Naples, I know that we could give very accurate estimates of the number of relatives, alien relatives, involved in Calabria and southern Italy from our correspondence files. I know from talking with the consuls in various posts of Europe that they have classified the applications that they have in their files by relationship and that it is a simple matter to go through the files. We knew perfectly well that the consuls could not make up any sort of estimate of the number of relatives of a certain class of alien in America.

I have the estimate here. There was no time for questionnaires, you may readily appreciate. We knew that the estimates would not show how long the alien relative had been in the United States, but we thought that it would be better than having no information at all to get the outside figures.

Senator WADSWORTH. They probably would not have the information as to whether he applied for citizenship.

Mr. DUBOIS. I am sure they would not. The replies to those telegrams are shown in this list, which I will read for the record, if you would like me to: The numbers are as follows:

Senator COPELAND. How did you get these enormous numbers for Italy and Czechoslovakia?

Mr. DUBOIS. In the same way that all the rest were gotten. From my personal knowledge of the situation in Italy, I believe that the figure is reasonably correct.

The CHAIRMAN. While you were out, Senator Copeland, Mr. Dubois read telegrams sent to the consuls at the various cities asking them to forward their estimates.

Senator COPELAND. Thank you.

The CHAIRMAN. As I understand it. Mr. Dubois, you were at one time connected with the consulate at Naples.

Mr. DUBOIS. Yes, sir.

The CHAIRMAN. How long ago was that?

Mr. DUBOIS. In 1920 to 1922.

The CHAIRMAN. Mr. Dubois says that from his knowledge of the part particular situation in that territory, which is one of the territories, I assume, which would be most affected by this legislation, he feels that this estimate is accurate.

Mr. DUBOIS. You will remember, Senator, that our information from Italy is comparatively recent and that in the last few years there has been a great difference in the source of our immigration to the United States, coming mostly from southern and eastern Europe, more particularly Italy and Greece, than in the years gone by, when we got most of our immigration from northern and western Europe. I think that is particularly true of Italy.

Senator COPELAND. I see your point.

Mr. DUBOIS. For another thing, it has long been the policy-I won't go so far as to say of the Italian Government-but it is the general practice in Italy for the wage earner to go out ahead, leaving his family at home; more so, I think, than in any other country in Europe.

That figure is somewhat corroborated by talks that I have had with officials from Italy and from various other sources.

I am not prepared to make any statement for or against the bill. That is something that I should not care to do. But I will be very glad to furnish any further information that I can in regard to the figures, if I happen to have them.

Senator COPELAND. Really, it is purely an estimate, isn't it?

Mr. DUBOIS. Yes, sir. It is an estimate based on the records of the consulates-sometimes correspondence and sometimes actual applications of the relatives which have been filed and classified.

Senator COPELAND. Do you think that the estimate furnished from Italy and the ones furnished from the eastern countries are founded on the same sort of mathematical computation as in the other countries?

Mr. DUBOIS. I don't think they were founded on any mathematical Computation at all. I think they were founded on correspondence

e put it in another way. The estimate he way in this country, Italy, as in the

Senator HARRIS. You think that this is a conservative estimate, do you?

Mr. DUBOIS. Yes, sir; I think that the estimate is a conservative one in answer to the question. The estimate is not conservative in relation to the aliens who filed their declarations before any given date. I think that it reflects a true picture of the number of fathers, mothers, wives, and children in Europe of unnaturalized aliens in the United States that want to come to the United States.

Senator COPELAND. You heard the testimony of Major Curran?
Mr. DUBOIS. Yes, sir.

Senator COPELAND. Wherein he placed the figure at 40,000?
Mr. DUBOIS. Yes.

Senator COPELAND. You think that the major was a little optimistic?

Mr. DUBOIS. If you call that optimistic. I call it pessimistic.

Senator COPELAND. It is optimistic in this sense: That if the major can prove his case, there is some chance of passing the bill. On the other hand, if you are right it makes the outlook very pessimistic and hopeless.

The CHAIRMAN. I think that Senator Copeland is right in one aspect of that. It will have a very material effect upon some of the members of the committee whether one set of figures is correct or whether the other set of figures is correct.

Senator WADSWORTH. May I ask Mr. Dubois a question?
The CHAIRMAN. Surely.

Senator WADSWORTH. Mr. Dubois, as you indicated a moment ago, these figures, aggregating 600,000 odd, when they were estimated, did not take into account the date of the arrival of the immigrants in this country?

Mr. DUBOIS. That is true.

Senator WADSWORTH. That would largely reduce the number, wouldn't it?

Mr. DUBOIS. It would reduce the estimates. How much, I am unable to say.

Senator WADSWORTH. If it applied only to immigrants who arrived prior to July 1, 1924, it would reduce the estimate by that number, wouldn't it?

Mr. DUBOIS. It would, but since it would be only the aliens who arrived in the United States since July 1, 1924, a period of 22 or 23 months, I don't think it would reduce the figure materially. Senator WADSWORTH. Well, 300,000 immigrants have arrived in that period.

The CHAIRMAN. Major Curran has brought out the fact that they now come in entire families much more than they did before 1924. Senator WADSWORTH. Another element not taken into consideration in making the estimates of the 600,000 relatives is the element of declaration of citizenship. They must have done that in this country.

Mr. DUBOIS. Congressman Jacobstein in his testimony before the House Committee on Immigration estimated that there were a million aliens in the United States who had effective declarations of intention to become citizens taken out prior to July 1, 1924. I should say, from information picked up within the seven years pre

ceding that date-1918 to 1924 that that number is somewhere near true. It does not seem to me that 60,000 relatives of those million aliens is a high estimate.

Senator COPELAND. I know this, that if you asked half a dozen persons how many people there are in a church, they will overestimate it tremendously. I haven't any doubt that the consuls in Italy and in Poland have had such clouds of persons coming into their offices that they imagine that the number is very great. But when they put down for Italy 350,000, in round numbers, I am convinced for myself, Mr. Chairman, that it is purely an estimate and that it is a guess; in other words, that it can not be founded upon actual concrete evidence.

Senator WILLIS. Mr. Dubois stated that the consuls based their figures upon correspondence and not simply upon looking at the crowds out in the streets.

Senator MEANS. They based it upon intimate personal knowledge which they had in their consulates, and Mr. Dubois states that he believes it to be somewhere near correct because the estimates are based upon the correspondence from which they could make an estimate.

Senator COPELAND. The telegram says "from your own knowledge of the local situation telegraph your best estimate."

Senator HARRIS. How else could they have asked them to get the information?

Senator COPELAND. I am not criticizing our witness at all, as he knows, and I am not criticizing the department. The point that I wanted to bring out was that I believe that that is an excessive estimate founded upon the individual opinion of some consul somewhere.

Senator WILLIS. Why excessive? Why say that it is excessive? Senator COPELAND. Of course, I would not expect the Senator from Ohio to agree with me on any matter relating to immigration. Senator WILLIS. You would consider any number to be excessive? Senator COPELAND. The Senator is entitled to draw his own conclusions.

Senator MEANS. I would suggest that Mr. Dubois continue.
Mr. CURRAN. May I say a word here?

The CHAIRMAN. Yes.

Mr. CURRAN. My own estimate was an estimate of the number of aliens who would come in if Senator Wadsworth's bill became a law. who would not come in if this bill does not become a law. There will be quite a considerable number who would come in at once or within a short time if this bill becomes a law who will come in voluntarily later on anyhow under the present law. So, the net increase in the foreign population of the United States will be a very much smaller number.

As to these figures from the consuls: Take the figure of 8,500 for Germany. It is a well known fact that it takes only a very short time-a few months, sometimes only a few days-within recent times to be reached in the German quota. So, it seems to me that 8,500 can be taken out of the figures because they can come anyhow within the quota within a short time.

As to this million declarants: Of course, some of this million have their families with them ready. Some of them have been in this country 10 or 11 or 12 years.

My estimate was not a gross estimate; it was a net estimate, an estimate of the net increase. My idea was to let them come now instead of later, to let them come before these families are hopelessly broken.

Senator COPELAND. If I understand you, Major, you believe that if this law is enacted, in all human probability not more than the number you have estimated-40,000-would take advantage of it? Mr. CURRAN. That is my belief.

Mr. DUBOIS. In regard to the point as to whether these aliens could be taken care of under the quota law: Every petition filed by an American citizen shows all his relatives, primarily for the purpose of the preference. We find at the middle of February that we have excess petitions on hand that could not be taken care of under the 50 per cent limitation of the preferences, of 12,451 for southern and eastern Europe and for countries the quotas of which aggregated 20,447. For northern and western Europe we had excess petitions filed in the middle of February over visas granted, of 1,016 against an aggregate quota of 140,000. Now, we know from experience that, I should say, eighty per cent of those requests for relatives of resident aliens to come into the United States must come from southern and eastern Europe where their quotas aggregate 20,447.

Senator COPELAND. And where the immigration was so great in recent years?

Mr. DUBOIS. Just so, because that is where we know the relatives are. That particular act is hardly necessary for Norway, Germany, and Ireland. Just as Mr. Curran says, the relatives from those countries are coming over within the quota. I should say that 80 per cent of the quota of the northern countries is made up of

Senator COPELAND. These figures are going into the record?
The CHAIRMAN. Yes. He has inserted them.

Senator COPELAND. I mean this paper that he is reading.

Mr. DUBOIS. I would rather not insert this paper because I would not want to create the impression that the State Department divides its figures by any geographical territory. If there is any particular figure that you want, Senator Copeland, I should be glad to get it. Senator WADSWORTH. May I explore the question with the help of Mr. Dubois a little further?

The CHAIRMAN. Yes.

Senator WADSWORTH. My information is that there are about seven million aliens in this country now. Is that approximately

correct?

Mr. DUBOIS. That is what I hear from almost every source. It is evidently the general idea.

Senator WADSWORTH. It is estimated that there are six hundred odd thousand relatives asking to come here, trying to come, they being the relatives in gross of that 7,000,000?

Mr. DUBOIS. Presumably.

Senator WADSWORTH. Of the 7,000,000 you would say that 1,000,000 have applied for citizenship, would you not? In other words, one-seventh of the aliens now in this country have applied for