TABLE 1.-Land area, number of inhabitants, and density of population in Mexico, 1960 in the Other Northern States, although somewhat higher than that of the Border States, is only 9.4 inhabitants per square kilometer. Thus, these two northern regions together contain 61.8 percent of the land area but only 27.1 of the population. This is largely because of the aridity of the land. In these two regions it is so dry that successful farming cannot be carried on without irrigation. Water resources are so scarce that there are comparatively few streams from which irrigation projects might be developed. The Central region is much more densely populated than any of the others since it has only 14 percent of the land, yet contains about half (49 percent) of the total inhabitants of Mexico. The population density of this region is 62.3 persons per square kilometer. Here is located metropolitan Mexico City where 4,871,000 inhabitants are crowded into the Federal District. Three of Mexico's four largest cities are also found in this area, including Mexico City which, in 1960, had 2,832,133 inhabitants; Guadalajara with 736,800; and Puebla with 289,049. Finally, the Gulf and the South Pacific regions have almost identical land areas although the South Pacific has slightly more inhabitants with a population density of 18 inhabitants per square kilometer as compared with 16.9 in the Gulf region. A glance at columns 6 and 7 of table 1 indicates that Mexico's population is almost equally divided between rural and urban inhabitants, with 50.7 percent urban. The population of the Border States tends to be clustered into urban areas to a greater extent than in any other region, with 63.8 percent urban. The Central area is 58.4 percent urban, the Gulf area 41.9 percent, and the Other Northern States 34.6. The South Pacific is the least urbanized, with only 26.2 percent living in urban areas and 73.8 percent living in rural districts. POPULATION GROWTH 1940-50 Mexico's population increased from 19.7 million inhabitants in 1940 to 25.8 million in 1950, an increase of 31.2 percent for the 10-year period and an annual average growth of 3.1 percent (see table 2). The growth was uneven among the regions. The most rapid growth is noted in U.S. Border States, with an average annual rate of 4.2 percent as compared with 3.2 in the Central region, 2.5 in the South Pacific and 2.6 in both the Other Northern and the Gulf regions. The growth in the individual states of each region was also uneven. Fantastically rapid growth was witnessed in the Border state of Baja California, where TABLE 2.-Population of Mexico for 1940-50, by Regions and States growth for the entire 10-year period was 187.3 percent and the average annual rate 18.7 percent. The states of Sonora and Tamaulipas of the Border region also displayed rapid growth, with an average annual rate of 4 and 5.7 percent, respectively. In the Central Region the Federal District increased 73.6 percent during the 10-year period, or an average of 7.4 percent annually. POPULATION GROWTH 1950-60 Mexico's population growth was not only continued at a rapid rate but actually became accelerated considerably during the decade 1950-60. The total population in creased from 25.8 million inhabitants in 1950 to 34.9 million in 1960, an increase of 35.5 percent in the 10-year period, or an average of 3.5 percent yearly (see table 3). Again, the greatest percentage increase was in the U.S. Border States, which experienced an even greater percentage increase than during the previous decade (47.3 percent as compared with 43.8). The Central Region again had the second highest rate of growth, with an increase of 37.4 percent during the decade. The slowest rate of growth in the 1950-60 decade was in the Other Northern States, with a percentage of 25.5 for the decade. This region was followed closely by the South Pacific, with 27.7 percent. The Gulf States increased 32.2 percent. TABLE 3.-Population of Mexico for 1950-60 by regions and states There were rather wide variations in population growth among the states in each region. While Baja California did not increase proportionately as much as during the previous decade (129.1 percent in 1950-60 as compared with 187.3 percent in 1940-50), the rate of increase was still 4.7 percent annually. Rates of increase in this Border region were greater than in the previous decade for the states of Chihuahua, Nuevo León, and Sonora. They were somewhat less than previously in Coahuila and Tamaulipas, although even in this latter state the annual rate for 1950-60 was 4.3 percent. In the Central region, the rate of increase was greatest in the Distrito Federal, although less than the spectacular increase registered during the previous decade-59.7 percent in 1960 as compared with 73.6 percent in 1950. The rates of growth for the states of Morelos, 4.2 percent per year, and Jalisco, 4.0 percent annually, were also outstanding in the 1950-60 decade. During the decade ending in 1960, three of the five states in the Gulf region showed increased rates of growth, including Quintana Roo, Tabasco, and Veracruz. Campeche showed a slight increase and Yucatán registered a decline in the annual rate of increase from 2.4 percent in 1950 to 1.9 percent in 1960. In the Other Northern States, the rate of growth was the same for the decade 1950-60 as for the previous decade (2.6 percent annually). This was the lowest rate in any of the regions in 1950-60, although only slightly lower than that of the South Pacific region (2.8 percent). Pronounced differences in regional growth of Mexico's population must be attributed largely to internal migrations. Differences in birthrates and death rates are simply not great enough to account for the differences in state and regional rates of growth; and, as previously indicated, there has been very little immigration. A recent preliminary report on a study of internal migration in Mexico,3 by Gustavo Cabrera, presents data indicating that all of the Border states except Coahuila gained greatly from migration from other states during the decade 1950-60. The gains in the Border states ranged from 13.9 percent in Tamaulipas to 61.6 percent of the total population increase in Baja California. In no other region did so many states gain through internal migration from other states. In other words, there appears to be a definite migration to the Border states from farther south. None of the states in the Other Northern States gained through migration. All of them lost more than they gained except Nayarit, which registered no change. In the Central region, only three states experienced a net gain through internal migration from other states. These were the Federal District, with 33.3 percent and the two adjoining states of Mexico (32.2 percent) and Morelos with 24.2 percent. All other states in the Central region suffered a net loss through migration. This would indicate the existence of strong waves of migration into metropolitan Mexico City and surrounding areas from other states, particularly in the Central region. ESTIMATED POPULATION GROWTH 1960-70 The attempt to forecast future growth of a population is rather a precarious business, especially in a developing country where census enumerations and the registration of 3 Gustavo Cabrera, A., Estimación de la Migración Interna de México, 1950-1960 (unpublished as of 1966). |