In the eighties of the last century, the gross reproduction rate in Germany and in northern Europe varied between 2 and 2.5. The total number of children (boys and girls) born to each woman then averaged four or five. Conditions were more or less the same in the other countries of western Europe, with the exception of France and Ireland where the number of children to each woman probably was about three. In 1926 the gross reproduction rate in the large countries of western Europe as well as in all countries of northern Europe varied between 1.05 and 1.43. The total number of children (boys and girls) born to each woman then varied between 2.15 and 2.95. Conditions were more or less the same in the smaller countries of western Europe with the exception perhaps of Holland, where the number of children to each woman possibly still exceeded three.

According to the fertility in western and northern Europe in 1926, the number of girls born to each woman is 1.12, and the number of children (boys and girls) born to each woman 2.3.

IN

Net Reproduction Rates

HIS third chapter the author of the study takes up net reproduction rates, which brings into it an analysis of the mortality statistics upon the problem in hand. He points out that, "if in a given population no death occurred and no birth, this population would ever grow older, and after 50 years there would be no more women of child-bearing age and no more men with full physical working capacity. The total population would still be as large as 50 years earlier, but in those 50 years it would not have done anything toward its reproduction and it would have lost any future chance of reproduction." In other words a comparison of yearly births and the yearly deaths does not warrant conclusions with respect to the trend in population. As he says:

The pertinent question is not Is there an excess of births over deaths? but rather, Are natality and mortality such that a generation which would be permanently subject to them would during its lifetime-that is, until it has died out-produce sufficient children to replace that generation? If, for instance, 1,000 newly born produce in the course of their lives exactly 1,000 children, the population after the death of the older 1,000 will remain unaltered. If natality and mortality continue to be what they were, the 1,000 children will in the course of their lives again produce 1,000 children, and if natality and mortality remain permanently the same, the population will always exactly hold its own. If more than 1,000 children are produced by a generation of 1,000 newly born, the population will increase; if less than 1,000 are produced, the population will decrease and finally die out.

Doctor Kuczynski goes on to make it clear that he is concerned only with the female population in the consideration of this problem. All his conclusions in this regard therefore deal with the mortality and fertility of women within the child-bearing age. He first undertakes to ascertain on the basis of present mortality how many of each

1,000 newly born girls reach and survive the ages 15 and 50 years; he next undertakes to ascertain the actual numbers of females living in each year of child-bearing age and the number of female births by age of their mothers in order to compute fertility rates for each year of age and, finally, he endeavors to apply these rates to the number of women who in a given stationary population would according to life tables be 15 to 16, 16 to 17 years, etc. This analysis is applied to Sweden largely because the best data are available for that country and he concludes that for the decade ending in 1900 the actual number of births in that country was 43.5 per cent more than necessary to maintain the population unchanged and a net reproduction rate of 1.435 existed for Sweden. In his own words the conclusion is:

According to the fertility prevailing in Sweden in 1891-1900, 1,958 girls were born to each 1,000 women; according to the mortality prevailing in the same period, this number would be reduced to 1,435. If fertility and mortality had remained the same, the 1,435 surviving girls would give birth to 1,435×1.958 girls of whom would survive, so that the net yield of the 1,435 girls would be 1,435 × 1,435=2,060, etc. Population would double in about two generations.

Since the net reproduction rate has in the nature of the case to be smaller than the gross reproduction rate, the author traces some of the results for western European countries. The net reproduction rate of Finland, which was 1.433 in the decade ending 1910, appears to have ranged around 1.09 for 1926; that of Denmark fell from about 1.524 in the years 1901-1905 to about 1.03 in 1927; that of Sweden by 1926 was presumably about 0.95; that of France fell in a quarter century from 0.979 to about 0.937; Germany's rate, once 1.448 (1881-1890), by 1927 ranged around 0.83; while that of England and Wales fell from around 1.312 in 1921 to below 0.82 in 1927.

In all western and northern Europe, the gross reproduction rate in 1926 has been about 1.12. Since the net reproduction rate in all probability did not exceed five-sixths of the gross reproduction rate, the net production rate in all probability did not exceed 0.93.

In the eighties of the last century, the net reproduction rate in Germany, Denmark, Sweden, and Finland was 1.4 or 1.5. The total number of children (boys and girls) born to each woman and becoming parents in their turn, then, average three. This means a doubling of the population within two generations. Conditions were more or less the same in the other countries of western and northern Europe with the exception of France and Ireland, where the number of children to each woman probably was about two; the population there only held its own. In 1926 the net reproduction rate was 1.1 in Denmark and Finland, but less than 1 in France and Sweden, and especially in England and Germany. The total number of future parents (boys and girls) born to each woman in 1926 was still higher than two in some of the smaller countries, but it was lower than two in all the larger countries. The average number was about 1.9. This means that the population does not hold its own.

According to the fertility and mortality in western and northern Europe in 1926, 100 mothers give birth to 93 future mothers only. With the fertility of 1926 the population is bound to die out unless mortality of potential mothers decreases beyond reasonable expectations. And fertility continued its downward path in 1927.

In his last paragraph Doctor Kuczynski discusses the present and the future balance of births and deaths, calling attention to the fact that, "in the present population of western and northern Europe the proportion of women of child-bearing age is particularly large and the proportion of young children and old persons particularly small.' As he says, "the age composition of the population of western and northern Europe tends to lower the number of deaths."

Even

The present death rate of 13 per 1,000 is therefore, taken by itself, misleading. That it can not permanently last can, moreover, be easily realized by a simple 13 1 logical consideration. A death rate of 13 per 1,000 means that or of the 1000 77 population die within a year, and if such a rate were permanent, it would mean that the average length of life is 77 years. But the length of life, of course, is actually much lower in every country of western and northern Europe. in Denmark, with its exceptionally low mortality, the mean length of life in 19211925 was 61 years. Denmark in that period had 11.3 deaths per 1,000 inhabitants, but the death rate derived from the actual mortality in the individual 1 years of age was or 16.4 per 1,000. By a similar process we find as corrected death rates for England, 1920-1922: 17.3 (crude death rate 12.4); Scotland, 1921: 18.3 (13.6); Germany, 1921-1923: 18.7 (140). The difference between the crude death rate, that is the number of deaths per 1,000 inhabitants, and the corrected death rate, that is the rate derived from the mortality in the individual years of age, is not as large in all countries of western and northern Europe. People are misled by the fact that the number of births appears large because of the age composition of western and northern Europe, for at present the proportion of children and of old persons is comparatively small and the number of births is comparatively large.

61

But the women who now are in child-bearing age will by and by pass this stage and will have to be fully replaced if with present fertility the number of births is not to decrease. The chances of such a replacement in the near future are easy to ascertain. In 1926 there were in western and northern Europe 23.67 million females under 15 years and 25.85 million females from 15 to 30 years. It is evident that even if all girls who now are under 15 years reached childbearing age, they would by no means be able to replace those who now are between 15 and 30 years. This result, of course, is partly due to the reduction of births during the war. But even if there had lived in 1926 as many girls of 5 to 10 and of 10 to 15 years as of under 5 years, the girls under 15 years (who would then number 25.06 millions) would not suffice fully to replace those of 15 to 30 years.

He endeavors to summarize for the area under consideration with certain figures taken for the year 1926.

The total number of female births in 1926 was 134 millions. The total number of women from 15 to 50 years was 5234 millions. If the number of female births continued to be 134 millions and if no death occurred, there would be in 50 years from now 134×35-614 million women between 15 and 50 years or considerably more than at present. But according to the mortality of 1926, the average number of years which the newly born girls may expect to live in the age of childbearing is 29. If, then, the number of female births continues to be 134 millions, and if mortality remains what it was in 1926, the number of women between 15 and 50 years, 50 years from now, would be 13429-5034 millions only as compared with 5234 millions in 1926. But with present fertility the number of births is bound to decrease before that, since the number of women now between 15 and 30 years can not be replaced by those now under 15 years of age.

With a fertility and mortality as they prevailed in western and northern Europe 40 or 50 years ago, the population would have doubled in three generations. With a fertility and a mortality as they have prevailed for some years, the population of western and northern Europe is bound to die out. This process, of course will be rather slow. With the present age composition it would take decades until there actually would be an excess of deaths over births, and it would take centuries until the population would be half of what it is now. The process will be accelerated if emigration continues, while it will not, of course, be affected by immigration since we are concerned only with the present population and its descendants.2 It can be stopped by an essential change in mortality or in fertility. But the future reduction of mortality in those ages which are the only decisive ones, that is, those under 50 years, can not be very great after all that has already been accomplished. The future then depends mainly on the trend of fertility.

It may, however, be noted incidentally that a yearly addiion of 100,000 women in child-bearing age, by immigration or by birth to future immigrants, would suffice to reestablish the equilibrium between births and deaths.

WAGES AND HOURS OF LABOR

Wages and Hours of Labor in the Men's Clothing Industry, 1928

TH

HIS article presents 1928 summaries of wages and hours of labor of employees in the men's clothing industry in 11 large cities and two groups of small cities-one in eastern Pennsylvania outside of Philadelphia and the other in northeastern New Jersey outside of Newark. The cities are those in which the number of employees is of sufficient importance to warrant inclusion in the report.

The 1928 study covered 200 establishments operating 369 cutting, coat, pants, and vest shops and employing 35,873 workers (17,626 males and 18,247 females); while the 1926 study covered 198 establishments operating 359 shops and employing 33,659 persons (17,048 males and 16,611 females). Earnings per hour, all employees combined, averaged 73.1 cents in 1928 as compared with 75 cents two years before. Males earned an average of 92.4 cents per hour in 1928 and 93.7 cents in 1926, and females earned an average of 53.4 cents per hour in 1928 and 54.8 cents per hour in 1926.

Average full-time hours per week of all employees covered in the industry were 44 in 1928 and 44.3 in 1926; those of males were 44.1 in 1928 and 44.3 in 1926, and those of females were 43.9 hours per week in 1928 and 44.3 in 1926.

The full-time earnings per week of all employees averaged $32.16 in 1928 and $33.23 in 1926; those of males averaged $40.75 in 1928 and $41.51 in 1926, and those of females $23.44 in 1928 and $24.28 in 1926.

The data used in compiling the 1928 figures are for a representative weekly pay period in June, July, August, or September, and, therefore, are representative of the industry in those months. The data were taken directly from the pay rolls and other records of the establishments by agents of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. According to the 1925 Census of Manufactures, the wage earners in the industry in the cities included in the report represent 62 per cent of the total number in the industry in the United States in that year, and the 35,873 for which 1928 figures are shown in the article represent 33 per cent of the number in the cities and 20.5 per cent of the number in the industry in the United States.

In Table 1 average full-time hours per week, average earnings per hour, and average full-time earnings per week are shown for employees in the "selected occupations" in the industry for each of the years, 1911 to 1914, and for employees in "all occupations" in the industry for certain specified years, 1914 to 1928, inclusive. The averages for the employees in the selected occupations from 1911 to 1914 are directly comparable, one year with another, as are the averages for the employees in all occupations from 1914 to 1928. Comparison of the averages for employees in the selected occupations with those for employees in all occupations should not be made inasmuch as the

two sets of averages for 1914 differ. One set covers 20,118 employees in selected occupations in 153 establishments and the other 24,597 employees in all occupations in the same establishments.

Index numbers of the averages (using the 1913 average as the base or 100 per cent) are also given in the table in order to have continuous and comparable data, one year with another over the entire period from 1911 to 1928. The indexes for each of the years 1911 to 1914 are simple percentages. Those for 1919 and for each of the succeeding years were computed by increasing or decreasing the 1914 index for selected occupations in proportion to the increase or decrease in the averages for all occupations as between 1914 and the specified succeeding year.

Average full-time hours per week increased from an index of 104.6 in 1911 to 105.2 in 1912, then decreased to 85.3 in 1922, increased to 85.7 in 1926, and decreased to 85.1 in 1928. The decrease between 1913 and 1928 was 14.9 per cent.

Average earnings per hour increased from an index of 86.7 in 1911 to 100 in 1913, decreased to 99.6 in 1914, increased to 295.7 in 1924 then decreased to 291.8 in 1926 and to 284.4 in 1928. The increase between 1913 and 1924 was 195.7 per cent and the decrease between 1924 and 1928 was 3.8 per cent.

Average full-time earnings per week increased from 90.2 in 1911 to 100 in 1913, decreased to 98.8 in 1914, increased to 253.6 in 1924, and decreased to 243.2 in 1928. The increase between 1913 and 1924 was 153.6 per cent and the decrease between 1924 and 1928 was 4.1 per cent. Average full-time earnings per week did not increase or decrease in the same proportion as average earnings per hour because of the change from year to year in average full-time hours per week.

TABLE 1.-AVERAGE HOURS AND EARNINGS WITH INDEX NUMBERS, 1911 TO 1928

1 Two sets of averages are shown for 1914 for the industry-one for selected occupations and the other for all occupations in the industry. The averages from 1911 to 1914 for selected occupations only are comparable one year with another, as are those for all occupations one year with another from 1914 to 1928.

Table 2 shows, for 1926 and 1928, average full-time hours per week, earnings per hour, and full-time earnings per week for all males and for all females in each of the selected occupations in the industry and for both sexes combined in all occupations.