warfare. The peoples of all the world are their enemies. They are as relentless in their antagonisms as the head-hunters of Borneo. Although Brazil has bought ships of war, in late years, her Government cannot trust Brazilians to man them. A revolt of the crews of several men-of-war, in the harbor of Rio de Janeiro, is too recent to require mention. Just how far the Brazilians would go to sustain a republican form of government, now existent, is difficult to say. A large proportion of the wealthy class would prefer a restoration of the empire. Much hope for continued republicanism is seen in the collapse of the Portuguese monarchy, ruled over by the Braganza family, a branch of which was represented by the late Dom Pedro in Brazil. As long as Portugal remains a republic, even in name, Brazil could muster an army, such as it is, in defence of the existing republic. The size of its army is insignificant; its troops could not stand against any of the trained armies of European Powers, however small. What the United States would do if Germany made a landing in force upon the coast of Brazil, with a view to establishing a colony, is hard to figure out. If Brazil ever is invaded, the wedge of assault will be driven northward from the Rio de la Plata; in which event, the attitude of Argentina would become of supreme moment to the United States.

At this hour, the Argentine Republic is the most progressive State in South America. Twenty years ago, this would have been said of Chile. Since then, the situation has changed. Although Chile pushed her frontier line northward at the expense of Peru and southward to the Straits of Magellan, the Argentines have developed their capital, Buenos Ayres, into one of the commanding seaports of the world. In population, Buenos Ayres ranks fourth in the western hemisphere-New York, Chicago and Philadelphia only being in excess. Here lies the key to the South American situation. The population of that city of 1,250,000 is practically European. Its people are imbued with European ideas; they have not assimilated with the republicanism of the small group of native statesmen who contrive to influence the direction of national affairs. The municipal institutions are in the hands of foreigners-wholly Germans and English. Money talks there, as elsewhere. The wealth of this com

mercial centre of the republic, from which all influences radiate, is foreign. Comparatively few foreign-born inhabitants— hardly 15 per cent.-have become naturalized. They are there for gain, not for loyalty. The probabilities are that a landing in force by Germany, provided Great Britain were complacent, would be welcome.

In such an event, England remaining neutral, the burden of saving the Argentine Republic from itself would devolve upon the United States, single-handed and alone. Such help as it received from the native troops would amount to little worth considering. Foreigners, in possession of all the arsenals, dominating with their navy the entrance to the great bay, formed by the mouth of the Rio de la Plata, could maintain their hold upon the country without serious difficulty. The impossibility of landing United States troops anywhere along the coast and reaching the capital-even if such relief were welcomed by the natives can be seen by the merest tyro who studies a map of the country. Any foreign Power with strength sufficient to take the initiative in such an invasion, would assuredly seize Uruguay and make it a base of supplies for the conquest of the larger country. Argentina has to-day an area of 1,083,596 square miles (Gotha measurement), being second in size only to Brazil. The shallowness of the Bay of la Plata precludes the conversion of Buenos Ayres into a naval base, because ships drawing more than 16 feet of water cannot approach within 12 miles of the city-which is 155 miles from the ocean.

The growth of the Argentine Republic is one of the marvels of modern civilization. Since most of us studied geography, it has extended its frontier to the southern cape of Terra del Fuego-absorbing all of Patagonia east of the Andes. Northward, Argentina, like Rhameses of old, "fixed her frontier where she pleased "-to the humiliation of Bolivia and in the face of protests from Brazil.

A vast State has been created on the continent of South America which its possessors cannot defend from any European Power that seriously means to occupy it. It is so located that the United States could not help its people, if it would. Its railroad development has been entirely northward and west

ward. It has not extended its lines of communication toward the Atlantic, relying upon its broad estuary to give it communication with the sea, but overlooking the fact that this gulf, although 100 miles broad, could be closed by a blockading fleet sufficiently strong to keep out any help that the United States might choose to send. After the Panama Canal is completed, transports might be sent to Valparaiso, but that would necessitate the crossing of Chilean territory, an act contrary to the laws of modern warfare and not to be tolerated by Chile, unless she cast in her lot with her neighbor.

Chile is under English commercial influences, as is Peru, and such a concession could not be asked with any expectation that it would be granted.

We now approach the west coast of South America. Chile has shown herself capable of defence against Peru; she has humiliated Bolivia. It is doubtful if any foreign Power would want Chile, even were its people willing to return to monarchical institutions. Peru is quite different. Its Presidents are assassinated oftener than are Chief Magistrates of the United States. It would fall easy prey to English capture, because all the commercial interests therein are British.

Nobody wants Ecuador, unless it be Japan. Recent reports that the Mikado has been trying to buy from her the Galapagos Islands, located 500 miles west of the mainland, in the Pacific, are probably mere rumors; but a glance at the map will convince any strategist of the incalculable value of such a base for an intended assault upon the artificial pathway between the Atlantic and Pacific. So far as Ecuador is concerned, we may eliminate desire for her possession by any European power.

Out of deep dislike for the United States, Colombians or Venezuelans might welcome a European protectorate; but the foreign wedge of assault, if it ever be driven into South America, will go through Uruguay, aimed at the conquest of Argentina. That splendid republic will safeguard itself and be in a position to welcome aid from without when it fully equips its State railway to Bahia, 350 miles almost due south.

The attitudes of the three European Powers already possessing small territorial possessions on the northern coast of

South America, namely Great Britain, Holland and France, are well understood. England has obtained all the disputed territory she desires from Venezuela. Holland would not care to extend the frontier of Surinam in a southern direction into Brazil. France is a republic and recognizes the theory upon which the Monroe Doctrine is based; her chief use of French Guiana is for a penal colony and she has no need or wish for its enlargement.

Disappointed in Morocco, Germany is the one European power likely to put the Monroe Doctrine to a test in the near future.

Suppose she were to buy the Danish Islands in the West Indies, how could the United States enforce a withdrawal from the purchase? Perhaps we would be willing to trade the Philippines for them?-a relief in more ways than one.

In conclusion, I call attention to the fact that when the Monroe Doctrine was promulgated, Japan was unsuspected of future majesty. Neither Japan nor China is mentioned or hinted at in the inhibition regarding foreign entanglements. Suppose Japan to have designs upon the Galapagos Islands, as suspected? What could the United States do, if Japan were to purchase them from Ecuador?

T

THE DEFEAT OF RECIPROCITY

PETER MCARTHUR

HE recent general election in Canada was notable, not so much for the defeat of Reciprocity as for the overthrow of the Liberal Government. The two were inseparable, of course, but the overthrow of the Government was the result that left its mark on the country. No one knows without a trial whether Reciprocity would have been advantageous or not, but the change of Government is bound to have an effect.

At the first glance the election is one on which both political parties and the people of Canada seem to be in a position to be congratulated. Sir Wilfrid Laurier after fifteen years of service as Premier has gone down to defeat battling for a principle on which he staked his political future. No public scandal stained the record of his administration and the election of 1908 showed him to be as strong in the affections of the people as when he first took office. During the intervening three years nothing happened to weaken his hold on his fellow-countrymen until he made what he considered a progressive step in negotiating the Reciprocity agreement with the United States. Mr. Borden, who succeeds him in office, has already given his country many years of valuable service as leader of the Opposition and has shown himself to be an honest and capable critic of public affairs. Had it not been that this election was one in which the United States was vitally interested it might have been allowed to pass as one of the ordinary events of political warfare; but when a strongly entrenched and confident Government with a majority of forty-five in a House of two hundred and fifteen members is defeated by a majority of forty-nine on so debatable a question as Reciprocity, the event is one that invites investigation. The situation is one from which lessons may be learned that will be valuable in the future.

The result was so unexpected that neither party has as yet offered a satisfactory explanation. If the defeat had been less