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COMMERCIAL REGULATIONS.

1. The Tax on Manufactured Goods. 2. Legal Tender Notes in Chicago without the Treasury Department Stamp: 2. The Duty on Chain Cables and other Articles. 4. Foreign Bondholders and the Tax Bill. 5. Palmyra Island. 6. Regulations for Trade on the Mississippi River. 7. Chicago Currency. 8. Commissions to Purchasers of Stamps. 9. Debenture Certificates...... 341

STATISTICS OF TRADE AND COMMERCE.

1. Commerce of the United States. 2. Production of Breadstuffs. 3. Export of Breadstuffs from the United States, 1862. 4. The New Mexico Wool Trade 848

THE COTTON QUESTION.

1. The Cotton Crop of 1859-60. 2. Cotton from Trinidad. 3. A Substitute for Cotton. 4. Royal Commission on Cotton. 5. Africa as a Cotton Field. 6. Cotton Cultivation in India......

RAILWAY, CANAL, AND TELEGRAPH STATISTICS.

1. Railroads of the United States-Census Report. 2. Railroads in France in 1862. 3. The Atlantic Telegraph. 4. New Telegraph Lines..........

JOURNAL OF INSURANCE.

358

864

1. Marine Losses for July and August. 2. Insurance Companies-War Taxes.. 870

STATISTICS OF POPULATION.

1. Population of the United States according to the Eighth Census. 2. The Flow of Population to the Suburbs of London and Liverpool......

872

JOURNAL OF BANKING, CURRENCY, AND FINANCE. 1. City Weekly Bank Returns, New York Banks, Philadelphia Banks, Boston Banks, Providence Banks. 2. Weekly Statement Bank of England. 3. Banks-Census Report. 4. Paper for Bank of England Notes Stolen. 5. The First Paper Mones in Europe. 6. The Banks and the Tax Bill. 378

JOURNAL OF MERCANTILE LAW.

1. Promissory Note Payable on Demand. 2. Statistic of Frauds. 3. A Question of "Commercial Morality." 4. No More Sailors Deserting at San Francisco. 5. Promissory Notes Made in Kentucky and Payable in New York.. 390

MERCANTILE MISCELLANIES.

1. An East India Coal Mine. 2. French Coal. 3. The Secret Power of the British Nation......

THE BOOK TRADE.

Notices of New Publications in the United States......

395

397

THE

MERCHANTS' MAGAZINE

AND

COMMERCIAL REVIEW.

NOVEMBER, 1862.

OUR CITIES IN 1862 AND 1962.

CHICAGO AND TOLEDO.

BY J. W. S.

The

THE cities of this country have become what they are, chiefly, within the last fifty years and, almost entirely, within the past century. sum total of the population of all of them, in 1762, was less than Chicago now possesses. With pride and exultation we look back on the growth of our cities, through the last century; with lively hope we anticipate a more glorious expansion during the century before us. In 1762, how imperfect were the instrumentalities of commerce, manufactures, and agriculture compared with those now in use. Will ours be so rude in the eyes of our successors of 1962? It is difficult to imagine so great an advance; and yet reason tells us it will be almost immeasurably greater. Who, in 1762, would have believed that the twenty thousand inhabitants of New York would grow to upwards of a million in 1862? Who, in 1762, would have been thought sane had he predicted the existence, in 1862, of a city on lake Michigan of over one hundred thousand inhabitants? Far more apparently incredible changes, in city growth, will be witnessed during the hundred years to come. China, with her inferior race of men and her greatly inferior instruments of production, has built up cities over her rich plains and valleys that embrace numbers nearly, if not quite, equal to all the other cities of the world. Our territory is scarcely less productive of the elements for the support of a great population than that of China. The natural productive powers of our continent of North America center about our great western lakes, and thither is flowing the migrating current of people more strongly than to any other part of the world. On the borders of these inland seas, therefore, we may expect a great concentration, in cities. The western extremities of lakes Erie, Michigan, and Superior are, evidently, the commanding commercial positions for the concentration of the commerce of the chain

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of lakes from all quarters of the world. To these points, as they offer the best water way to the Atlantic and the best centers of distribution around the lake borders, will be directed the commerce of the North Pacific Ocean, in its passage across the continent. The productions of Eastern Asia and the North Pacific Islands, transported by the Pacific railway to the navigable waters of the Missouri, may reach these lake ports on steam propelled boats or steam drawn cars, and, there, meet and be exchanged for products brought from the shores of the Atlantic, in large steamers and by railroad. At present, and until a much larger capital is accumulated in the lake cities, this commerce of ocean with ocean will be carried on, chiefly, at New York. By the time the Pacific railroad is completed, there will be a great change in the ability of the lake cities to participate in the new commeree which it will create.

If the ocean commerce were alone considered, New York would be their best emporium. Foreign commerce is of great importance, but our domestic commerce is, almost immeasurably, more important. This can be carried on to better advantage in central positions of the continent than on its borders. The more central the position to the home productions to be interchanged, other advantages being equal, the better the location for domestic commerce. The center of population of the United States, and also of the U. S. embracing the Canadas, is in southeastern Ohio. It is moving every year, in a line considerably north-of-west, about four miles, in the direction of the west end of lake Erie. The center of the productive capabilites of the continent, when well improved, will be as far in the interior as Chicago; probably many miles northwestward of that city. But as our commerce with the Atlantic borders, on both sides of the ocean, will, for a long time to come-probably for all time to come-be greater than with the countries on the Pacific, the center of industrial power will always be eastward of the center of population of our country. It will be quite within the limits of truth to assert that the home commerce of the continent is ten times greater than its commerce with all the world besides. The best position for the concentration of this home commerce, other things being equal, will, then, be worth ten times as much as the best position for external commerce. For the concentration of interior or home commerce, the best location will be the city nearest the center of industrial power, provided it has adequate channels for transport and other facilities for the healthful support of a large commerce and a large population. Such are the positions of Toledo and Chicago. Is it reasonable to anticipate for these young cities a very high destiny? Will it seem absurd to expect one or both to come up to the stature of great capitals, such as New York, London, and Paris, by the year 1962? We submit some facts which look in that direction. The tendency of the commerce of the great North American plain to center in the lake cities has been manifest from their commencement, and especially during the last fifteen years. The increase of population from 1850 to 1860 was

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Twenty years ago it was generally believed that our largest interior cities would grow up on the great interior rivers. Experience has since demonstrated that our interior commerce prefers to concentrate on the borders of our great lakes. It can no longer be doubted, by well informed persons, that these lakes will draw to their waters and concentrate in their cities a greater commerce than will the great interior rivers. The superior growth of the commerce and population of the chief cities of the lakes, from 1850 to 1860, proves this to have become the rule of the past. The increase of population of the ten largest lake cities, as the foregoing table shows, was more than twice as rapid as that of the ten largest river cities. The proportionate increase of their commerce was much greater. Of the ten largest lake cities, Chicago and Toledo exhibit much the most rapid growth in commerce and population-the former having gained 265 per cent and the latter 260 per cent. These cities having the most commanding positions are to be the future rivals for leadership. Each has great and peculiar claims to become, one day, the great city of the lakes. It will, probably, be long before it is settled which has the best position for concentrating a great commerce. Toledo has, at present, not more than one-seventh the number of inhabitants in Chicago. This places her at great disadvantage in the start. Can it be overcome? Philadelphia was, once, much more populous and wealthy than New York. Business and wealth change the field of their operations, in our day, more readily than many years ago. People change their places of residence with much more ease and less reluctance than formerly. The whole human race is becoming mobile. We may, therefore, put less stress on the advantage of greater size. The best natural position for be oming the great city of the lakes, within the next hundred years, is believed to belong to Toledo. Artificial channels of trade, alrealy in use, are not wanting, and it is but reasonable to expect they will be multiplied to meet the exigencies of its growing commerce. Has Toledo the better natural position? Let us, with candor, enumerate the peculiar advantages of each. Toledo is nearer to the British provinces north and northeast of the lakes and much more convenient for the exchange of the exportable products of these provinces, transported by water or by land, for the exportable products of the interior States west and southwest of Toledo and Chicago: These provinces now contain some three millions and-a-half of people, and increase nearly as fast as the Northwestern States. Their numbers increasing at the same rate as that of all the States of our Union, since 1790, would become upwards of seventy millions in one hundred years. Whether incorporated with us or constituted an independent nation, these provinces will form an important part of our commercial world. The natural resources of this extensive region are very great and will be developed into immense wealth by the intelligent and active race who are filling it with people.

Proximity, facility of access in time and cost, other things being equal, will determine the preference of one commercial position over another. The British provinces of the North constitute but a small portion of the commercial world that is nearer to Toledo than to Chicago, and, so should prefer it, as a place of resort, for the interchange of its commodities. By drawing, on the map, a line of equal distance between the two cities it will be seen that, eastward of that line, there exists, and for a long time there must continue to exist, a great preponderance of population and

wealth over the region westward of that line. This dividing line will give Toledo the lower portions of lakes Superior and Michigan, and, in its course southward, will pass through South Bend and Indianapolis, west of Louisville, and meet the gulf near Pensacola. If the commerce of North America be alone considered, there is scarcely room for doubt that Toledo is the more favorable point for its present concentration. There is not only much more population east of the line, but it possesses, in proportion to numbers, much greater wealth-producing power. Ho will the balance stand when half the century, allowed for the race between these cities, shall have passed? The United States and British provinces will then contain over one hundred millions of people. Will the center of their commercial power then be nearer Chicago than Toledo? Clearly not. The probability is that the greater portion of the hundred millions will live east of the line of equal distance; and there cannot be a doubt that the preponderance of wealth and resources, in proportion to numbers, will be on the Toledo side. The available channels of commerce of both cities are now ample for the present condition of the country; and it may be safely assumed that they will be improved and increased as rapidly on the Toledo as on the Chicago side of the line. Will the center of commercial power of the continent, before the end of a century, be west of the line of equal distance between Chicago and Toledo? It is probable that the center of population will reach that line, and quite possible that it may, in its westward movement, reach and pass Chicago. But, the center of population and the center of commercial power are quite distinct and, often, distant from each other. Our calculations, intended to show the future center of the commercial power of our continent, must embrace the whole commercial world. We must also estimate, approximately, as well as we can, the relative commercial value of the different populations in North America and beyond it. This value will depend, chiefly, on proximity, industry, capital, and enterprise. Proximity, near neighborhood, has much to do with the number and amount of commercial transactions of every community. Persons of different occupations, in a city, within a few doors of each other, on the same block, on the same side of the street, on the same street, in the same quarter of the city make more exchanges, buy and sell more with each other, other things being equal, than with people more remote or more difficult of access. Whatever can be procured in the city of one's residence will be bought there rather than in the next city; and the city near at hand will be called on to supply what the city of our residence cannot so well furnish, in preference to a city more distant. It is probȧble that the people of the city of New York, with its immediate dependencies, numbering a million and-a-quarter, carry on more commerce with each other and with the rest of the world, in number of transactions and in amount of values, than any five millions in the valley of the Mississippi. The advantages of easy co-operation in industrial pursuits, which proximity confers, constitute an essential element in the growth of cities which prosper by virtue of natural advantages. Toledo therefore, being nearer the chief centers of industrial power of North America and the world, may be expected to have more commercial transactions, other advantages being equal, than Chicago.

The numerical preponderance of the country nearer Toledo does not fully represent its comparative industrial ability. The industry of the

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