"The principles of Political Economy must obviously be deduced from axioms relative to the conduct and feelings of mankind under particular circumstances, framed upon general and extensive observation. But neither the feelings nor the conduct of a being like man, endowed with mental volition, and infinitely varying degrees of sensibility, can, with anything like truth, be assumed as uniform and constant under the same circumstances. Hence the highest degree of certainty which can belong to the principles of Political Economy will amount only to moral probability, and must fall far short of the accuracy that characterizes the laws of the physical sciences. This consideration should have prevented the attempts which have been made by many writers on Political Economy to attribute the force of mathematical demonstration to its conclusions. The fashion just now among this class of inquirers is, to designate their favourite study as Political Mathematics'; but it would obviously be just as reasonable to give the name of Ethical Mathematics' to the sister science of morals. The rules of economical policy are to be ascertained only by studying the same variable course of human action, and with reference to the same indefinite end-the happiness of the species-as the rules of morality. Far from partaking of the character of an exact science, like the mathematics, which deals in the qualities of abstract and imaginary entities, it has not even the fixity of any of the natural sciences to whose study the mathematics are usually applied; the facts of which it takes cognizance consisting only of such variable, vague, and uncertain essences as compose human pains and pleasures, dislikes and preferences.

"Still, though the nature of the subject precludes any approach to mathematical certainty, the general laws of human action and human happiness are to be ascertained with a correctness amply sufficient for the formation of general rules. Though the conduct of any individual man cannot, with complete confidence, be predicted from a knowledge of the circumstances surrounding him, yet that of the generality of men-of the great masses of mankind-may be determined beforehand with all but absolute certainty; and the object of the political economist, like that of the moralist, being to act upon the masses, this knowledge is sufficient for his purpose, and will enable him to declare with confidence the combination of circumstances necessary to bring about any desired result within the range of his science.'

"If we were to examine the whole range of works which have been written for elucidating general science, we should not probably meet with anything more unscientific, more weak, or more unwarranted, than is this introduction of Mr. Scrope's. He has endeavoured, in the first place, tu lead the mind of his reader to adopt the belief that uncertainty is necessarily inherent in the subject; and having opened for himself an easy way of advancing, by means of his latitudinarian privilege, and received into his own mind the conviction that political economy cannot be worked as an EXACT science, it then became necessary for him to say a little on the other side, or that of exactness; for as it was his intention to treat of the subject, this could not be done with satisfaction to himself, or with a chance of carrying conviction to the mind of his reader, if he did not invent some method of inducing the supposition that his arguments and conclusions were to partake in some degree of the character of exactness or truth. In order, therefore, to prepare the way for a more favourable reception of his arguments than his nescientific doctrine would be likely to procure for them, he has written as follows. Still, though the nature of the subject precludes any approach to mathematical certainty, the general laws of human action and human happiness are to be ascertained with a correctness amply sufficient for the formation of general rules.' Now, this is very odd! We are here assured that the subject precludes any approach to mathematical certainty. The word mathematical,' in the way in which it is here used, has no meaning at all, it being merely a high-sounding expletive-the word 'certainty' contains all the meaning. The writer then says, that although certainty or truth cannot be clearly shown, yet that general laws may be ascertained with a correctness amply sufficient for general rules. Thus we are to have general rules founded upon general uncertainty.

Again he says 'Though the conduct of any individual man cannot, with complete confidence. be predicted from a knowledge of the circumstances surrounding him, yet that of the generality of men-of the great masses of mankind—may be determined beforehand with all but absolute certainty.' Here the writer has commenced by an admission that the truth cannot be ascertained as regards one or the individual, yet it may be ascertained as regards many or the multitude; and thus his argument is, that the more we multiply error, the more certain we are to arrive at truth.

It is much to be lamented that Mr. Scrope did not pursue the only right line of argument which was open to him on the emergency in which he was placed. His course should have been to have declared at once that human investigation has not penetrated so far as to develope the subject fully. He should then have laid before his readers that which he considered the best evidence, and then have offered his conclusions as emanating from this evidence the quality of the conclusion being in exact proportion to the quality of the evidence. He should have given, in the next place, the candid and honourable caution of not trusting too much to conclusions which are derived from incomplete evidence. Moreover, he should have enforced on the consideration of his readers the urgent necessity of continuing an investigation of the subject for the purpose of acquiring that knowledge which is admitted to be wanting. This course would have been easily understood by every person of common sense, and would have led to a correct appreciation of that knowledge of the subject which HAS been acquired, and excited a laudable desire to attain that which is deficient. But Mr. Scrope has not thought proper to pursue this course; consequently, it becomes a matter of curiosity to find out how he has managed to derive any positive conclusions from avowedly unascertained premises. This shall form the substance of my next letter.

"I remain, Sir,

"Your obedient Servant,

"No. 16, Doughty Street, Feb. 28, 1842."

"WILLIAM ATKINSON."

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"Mrs. Tatham was a woman of a strong and cultivated mind; and her piety, which was not only very sincere, but deep, rich, and active, partook largely of her intellectual character. The volume is chiefly made up from her own writings, and Dr. Beaumont has ably performed the task committed to him.-He has so selected and arranged his materials, and connected them with such interstitial remarks of his own-remarks eminently characteristic of the writer-that the Memoirs he has furnished present, we should suppose, as accurate a delineation of the mental and religious character of Mrs. Tatham, as the Portrait prefixed to the volume does her personal features. The value of the Memoirs is not lessened, in our estimation, by the judicious observations in which he occasionally feels it necessary to express his dissent from some of Mrs. Tatham's remarks. Altogether, he has given us a capital piece of biography, which the aged Christian may read with encouraging sympathy, and from which the young disciple may derive the most important instruction." -Wesleyan Methodist Magazine, July, 1838.

We can cordially recommend this Memoir as a valuable contribution to the stock of Christian biography. For the full benefit of Christian example, the various orders, so to call them, of Christian character require to be described, and the developement of unchanging principle traced in its connexion with the diversities of intellect and temperament. Dr. Beaumont has presented us, we believe, with a good likeness of this excellent lady, whose Memoir he thus writes.-We seem, in reading this work, to become acquainted with Mrs. Tatham; and for such an acquaintance it is carcely possible not to be the better. For his own share of the work, done with his own ability and his own style, we thank Dr. Beaumont; and every reader of the volume, we think, will thank him 100."-The Watchman, June 20, 1838.

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LETTER XII.

ON COMMERCIAL ECONOMY.

"To J. R. M'CULLOCH, Esq.,

"SIR.In my last letter I showed you that Mr. Poulett Serope has commenced his work on Political Economy by adopting the extraordinary and unwarranted assumption that the science does not admit of being treated of accurately. Such an assumption being admitted, it will, as a matter of course, be inevitable, that the writer shall be found pursuing tortuous and contradictory causes. To these I now invite your attention.

"Having, as I have before remarked, commenced his investigation of the science with the acknowledged adoption of an indeterminate or doubtful principle, yet when he comes to dilate on conclusions he sets them down as determinate or positive, that is, of two inclusive propositions, not being able to comprehend the lesser, he, nevertheless, professes to comprehend the greater, which includes the lesser. This will be made evident by the following passage from page 37 of his work. Nor are the errors on this subject by any means confined to those who have pursued its study in their closets. On the contrary, the most pernicious fallacies, and absurd paradoxes, have been, and still are, generally current among those who pride themselves on being practical' men, and on despising theory. There are, indeed, few rasher theorists than those who habitually exclaim against theory. The notions, for example, that a country is enriched by what is called a favourable balance of trade causing an influx of the precious metals; that the expenditure of taxes, in employing the people, compensates thein for the burden of taxation; that improvements in machinery are injurious to the labouring class; that ore individual or one country can only gain at the expense of another; that the outlay of an absentee's income abroad, or the introduction, for sale, in this country, of an article of foreign manufacture, abstracts an equal amount of employment from our native industry; these, and many others that might be mentioned, ARE THEORETICAL DOCTRINES OF THE FALSEST AND MOST INJURIOUS CHARACTER, taken up by numerous persons, on what they consider the authority of common sense, but which, in truth, is merely crude induction from a very limited and imperfect experience.'

From the passage just quoted. it will only be necessary for me to select two particular propositions-these are, the outlay of an absentee's income abroad,' and the introduction for sale, into this country, of an article of foreign manufacture.' With regard to these, you will see that the author's conclusion does not partake, in the slightest degree, of the nature of doubt, but his opinion is of a character entirely positive, for his decision is, that these ARE theoretical doctrines of the falsest and most injurious character.' Thus he has written at the commencement of his investigation, when he felt that he could deal with the facts of his subject in so cursory a manner as to mould them accordantly with his own will; but now I will request your attention to another part of his work, where his course of argument is presented under a very altered aspect. In the 15th chapter, page 393 and following, the author arrives at that stage of his investigation where the facts on which he has ventured to dilate necessarily coerce him into an abandonment of simple assertions, and conclusions unconnected with premises, and, in their places, to trace, with some degree of accuracy, the agency and connexion of cause and effect; and now you will see this remarkable result, namely, that the facts of his proposition, although badly and confusedly worked together, yet lead him to the necessity of REVERSING his previous conclusion. The passage is long, and on account of ill-arrangement, and the co-mingling of heterogeneous matter, will prove tedious on perusal; notwithstanding which it must be carefully separated and minutely examined, and, this being done, I feel certain that every person who would exert power and patience sufficient to comprehend it, would be of opinion that it affords an additional proof of the weak, ill-constructed, and false line of argument by which it has been attempted to develope the truth of this great subject. The passage is as follows:

"The disputed question of the effects of absenteeism is connected with that on commercial restraints, and, therefore. comes properly into discussion in this place. The moral benefit which the residence of landlords upon their estates tends to confer upon society, has been conceded by those who at first denied that residence was any advantage whatever, and consequently, that absenteeism could be any injury. The economical consequences of absenteeism, so far as relates to England, consist, it appears to us, (you see he begins again to be doubtful.) simply in such as may flow from the landlord's income being expended in the employment of one branch of industry rather than another, or of the inhabitants of a town rather than of a country district. If au English landlord reside in London, and expend there his rental, drawn from Yorkshire, the tradesIf he reside abroad, his meu. &c. of London, gain all that the tradesmen, &c. of Yorkshire lose. rental must be remitted indirectly, in British manufactures, and its expenditure, therefore, gives the same aggregate employment to British capital and labour as if he resided in the country, and spent it on British goods of a different kind. To put an extreme case, were even the WHOLE rental of the kingdom spent abroad, there would still be as much employment afforded to British industry as before. Ruin would no doubt fall upon the tradesmen of London, of our watering places, and many country towns and villages; but Manchester and Sheffield, Leeds and Liverpool, would gain in exact proportion to the loss sustained by other places. The rental could not be remitted, except in the form of British manufactures, fabricated at some of these places. It is not meant to deny that great injury would result from the absenteeism of all our landed proprietors; but the injury would be of a moral and social, rather than an economical nature.

The case of Ireland, however, differs from that of Britian in this remarkable point, that while the latter exports solely manufactures, the exports of Ireland consist solely of food,-corn, butter, pork, beef, &c. In her case, therefore, that portion of the raw produce of the soil which accrues to the landlord as rent, will, it he is an absentee, be directly exported, as the only means of remitting his rent, instead of being consumed by manufacturers at home, while working up goods for exportation, as in England. The English absentee landlord may be considered as feeding and employing, with the surplus produce of his estate, that portion of our manufacturing population which Is engaged in fabricating the goods that are sent abroad to pay his rent. The Irish absentee, on The comary, can only have his rent remitted in the shape of food, there is no secondary inter

vening process whatever; and the more food is in this way sent out of the country, the less, of course, remains behind to support and give employment to its inhabitants. If these were all fully fed and employed, no harm would result from the exportation of food, as is the case, for example, with some parts of North America. But so long as the people of any country are, as in Ireland, but half-employed, and half-fed, so long, to export food from thence, will be to take away the means existing in the country for setting them to work, and improving their condition. Should the Irish absentee landlord return to reside at home, a considerhle portion of the food now exported to pay his rent would be transferred by him to Irish tradesmen, artisans, and labourers, whom he could not avoid employing to satisfy a variety of wants. Ireland would profit, pro tanto, by the additional employment and subsistence afforded to her inhabitants. As it is, she loses by the absence of her landlords exactly what she would gain by their return.'

"I have thus shown you that the writer whose work I am now examining, commenced his investigation of the subject by asserting one thing, and concluded it by asserting that which is diametrically the opposite; for he began by declaring positively that the doctrine by which it is maintained that the outlay of an absentee's income abroad abstracts an equal amount of employment from native industry, is a theoretical doctrine of the falsest and most injurious character, and he concluded by tracing out himself a series of facts showing the injurious nature of absentee expenditure, end establishing the very result which he had previously denounced, thus revising and reversing his own judgment.

"I will conclude my review of Mr. Poulett Scrope's work by urging upon your attention another most important and remarkable feature, which pervades the entire matter of argument which I have just quoted. Although I have brought this feature under your notice before, as appertaining to your own work, yet it is a feature of such vast importance, that wherever it is found to be introduced, it ought to have especial consideration given to it. With regard, then, to any change which may be made in the circumstances of a country by means of an alteration of its commercial laws, it will be evident that such change must have its result in one of the three following ways-first, by a decrease, which would be an injurious result; secondly, by an equivalent, which also would be injurious, for it would be compelling men to quit their occupations and places of abode for no object; and thirdly, by an increase, which would be beneficial. It is manifest, therefore, that the duty of those who argue the case is, to exhibit a well-defined source of ADVANTAGE accruing from the proposed change; for the object sought to be attained by making the change is that of opening the way to the formation of ADDITIONAL capital, in order that the increase of the means of sustaining population, and the increase of population, may be preserved in a progression justly proportioned the one to the other.

Thus the fact contended for and to be demonstrated is that of INCREASE. This will be admitted by every writer who possesses the least title to express an opinion on the subject. Now, the point to which I have to call your attention here is, the lamentable manner in which Mr. Poulett Scrope has met this important argument of increase. When dilating on the consequences of indulging, to a very great degree, a taste for foreign commodities by the people of this country, he has framed his case succinctly, and has given a decision upon its results. He has informed us, that in the event of a great portion of the income of the country being expended abroad, ruin would, without doubt, fall, first upon the tradesmen of London, then upon those of our watering places, then upon many country towns, and then upon many villages; but that Manchester and Sheffield, Leeds and Liverpool, would gain in exact proportion to the loss sustained by other places. It is a pleasing, though a very rare occurrence, to find a political economist attempting to give a definition. In this instance, however, a definition has been given, for the writer says, that the gain of some place will be IN EXACT PROPORTION to the loss of others. Now, the words in exact proportion' must, of necessity, assign an equal measure or quantity to both the predicates of the proposition. The implication, therefore, is, that the predicate antecedent and the predicate procedent are EQUAL the one to the other. The problem, when worked by figures, will then stand thus: Let the subtraction from an ascertained congregate be equal to the number 1000-let the addition to another ascertained congregate be also equal to the number 1000-hence no increase in the aggregate. It follows, therefore, that the postulate, or object required, which is increase, is not found.

"I have now proved to you, that Mr. Poulett Scrope has entirely failed to accomplish that which should have been the great object of his labours, namely, establishing the law of increase of capital. On concluding my examination of his work, I will beg of you to notice the very cool and careless manner in which he has dealt with the word RUIN. He has told us, that under certain circumstances, ruin would fall upon the tradesmen of London-a pretty considerable body of the people is here included. He then proceeds to assign ruin also to the people of our watering places, again to those of MANY country towns, and also to those inhabiting many villages. In order, however, to allay, in some degree, the alarm which might arise from a prospect of such extensive devastation and misery, he then proceeds to argue, that in exact proportion as would be the ruin of these places so would be the rise of others. Now, if all the gain which is here asserted should be conceded as possible to accrue, even then the writer would be arguing in direct opposition to the course which every wise and benevolent statesman, as well as every sensible writer on political economy, profess to uphold, which is, the widest diffusion of wealth.

The whole character of Mr. Scrope's description brings to my mind scenes equally inventive, although ludicrous-I mean those which are exhibited to our children in the Christmas Pantomimes, when Harlequin, merely by a slight application of his wand, ordains that, in an instant, some things vanish and others rise into being. I now finish my examination of this curious, but true specimen of modern reasoning, as well as of the enlightment of the present age. In my next letter, I will enter upon the consideration of works which are of far more importance, and, unhappily for our country and for mankind, have exercised far greater influence-I mean those of Malthus. "I remain, Sir, your obedient Servant, "No. 16, Doughty Street, March 7, 1842." WILLIAM ATKINSON."

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