These seven plants will meet the needs of the Pacific Northwest for thermal generation through 1980-81. BPA's costs for acquiring of power under net billing contracts such as those referred to in relation to Plants 2 and 4 above, require no Federal appropriations. The higher cost thermal power acquired by BPA through these net billing arrangements will be combined with the lower cost federal hydro power and sold at BPA rates which will be adjusted from time to time to reflect these higher costs. These adjusted rates will reflect not only the higher cost thermal power but costs of all federal hydro generation and transmission facilities. The resultant rates will provide sufficient revenues to the U.S. Treasury to meet all federal power system repayment obligations. All costs associated with the net billing transactions and all other federal costs assigned for repayment out of power revenues will be borne by BPA power customers. The Federal Government's investment in hydroelectric plants and transmission lines for the program through the 11-year period 1970-71 through 1980-81 is estimated at approximately $2,345 million. (See Table 1). The public and private utilities' investment is estimated at about $4,266 million during this same period in generation, transmission and distribution facilities. POWER SITUATION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWE ST Nationally the electric utility industry has encountered numerous difficulties in its attempt to meet the demand for power. Blackouts and near blackouts have occurred with increasing frequency in recent years due to the lack of adequate generation and transmission facilities. The late delivery of equipment, the failure of equipment to operate properly when delivered, and the public opposition to the location of generating plants are among the most important reasons for the utilities' inability to meet loads. The power situation in the Northwest is similar in many respects to the national situation. Even though considerable progress has been made toward implementation of the Hydro-Thermal Power Program, the power situation in the Pacific Northwest will be serious for the next five years. Repeated delays in generator unit installation schedules at key federal hydro projects in the region will result in regional loads outstripping resources during the years 1970-71 through 1974-75 (Chart 1).1/ The deficit of 1,100 megawatts in 1972-73 is more than the combined loads of the cities of Tacoma, Washington, and Eugene, Oregon. If additional delays in the installation of either hydro or thermal generation are encountered, the power situation in the Northwest will become critical. The peak surpluses shown from 1975-76 on are never more than 3 percent 1/ This chart and some of the others show projections for an additional 10 years beyond the period 1970-71 through 1980-81 which this paper covers. and usually less than 2 percent of total area load. If generation is delayed from a few months to over a year, as had been the recent utility experience, these surpluses would disappear. By 1980-81 the power requirements of the utilities involved in the Hydro-Thermal Program are expected to increase by more than 75 percent. The forecast rate of growth for the next eleven years is considerably below that experienced since 1950 and also below forecasts for the growth in power requirements nationally (Chart 2). Electroprocess industries served by BPA will show a modest growth in the next 20 years. Most of the growth in power requirements in the region will come in public and private utility loads (Chart 3). The area will require an estimated generation capability of 35,948 megawatts of peaking capacity and 19,565 average megawatts of energy by 1981. To obtain these totals, 15,728 megawatts of peaking and 7,714 average megawatts of energy capability will be added in the next eleven years. Hydro capacity will supply about 53 percent of the additional peaking required but only about 24 percent of the additional energy capability. While few sites are available in the region where additional hydro energy can be obtained, peaking capacity can be added to existing and authorized plants to provide a substantial portion of the peaking capacity required through 1981. The new thermal plants, on the other hand, will operate primarily as base load plants supplying substantial quantities of energy as well as peaking. This is illustrated in Charts 4 and 5. By 1981 total Federal Columbia River Power System hydro resources will amount to 18,996 megawatts of peaking capacity and 7,892 average megawatts of energy capability. All but about 260 megawatts of this power will be from existing, under construction, and authorized projects. TRANSMISSION SYSTEM FOR THE HYDRO-THERMAL POWER PROGRAM Within the region power loads are expected to grow most rapidly in the area west of the Cascade Mountains. This area is presently the most densely populated part of the region and the increase in population in the next eleven years is expected to be greatest in this same area. Most of the region's present electric generating capacity, almost all of which is hydro generation, is located east of the Cascade Range. Most of the new thermal generating plants are planned for locations west of the Cascades, close to the load centers. This will reduce the requirements for transmission lines and aid in preserving environmental quality. This is illustrated by Charts 6 and 7. Chart 6 shows power flowing from east to west in 1970-71. Chart 7, for 1980-81, shows that while power flows from east to west have increased, some 6,300 megawatts of load west of the Cascades is being supplied by new thermal plants in that area. In addition to requiring less transmission by locating new thermal generation close to load centers, transmission lines presently being constructed and those planned for the future will make better use of rights of way. Regional power loads are now sufficiently large to make possible the use of 500 kv lines rather than the 230 kv lines which use a 125-foot right of way and formed the regional transmission grid for many years. These new lines provide as much as five times as much capacity as 230 kv lines with only a 20 percent increase in right of way requirements. Several of the new 500 kv lines will, in fact, be built on existing 230 kv rights of way thus increasing capacity with no increase in land requirements. Transmission lines in the 700 kv class are being investigated for future installation as load conditions grow to warrant their use. These lines will be able to carry as much as ten times the power of a 230 kv line with only a 20 to 40 percent increase in land requirements (see Chart 8). The Hydro-Thermal Power Program has been discussed previously with the Appropriations Committees. This summary paper provides information concerning its implementation. We believe that the previous hearings, this summary, and the January 1969 report "A Ten Year Hydro-Thermal Power Program for the Pacific Northwest," will provide the information necessary for the detailed review of the long-range hydro-thermal plan desired by the Committees prior to approving continued implementation of the program for the remaining three plants required through 1980-81. |