Senator REED. But is the distribution of the quotas among those countries accurate? Mr. BOGGS. I would not like to pass judgment on the work of the previous committee, but this can very properly be said: It was intended to be a temporary provision, and they had a very short time in which to do the work. Further Senator COPELAND. Pardon me, what was it you said about a temporary provision? Mr. BOGGS. The present quota basis; and they had to do their work in a period of two or three months-I have forgotten how long, but it was a very short time. Further than that, a considerable body of information has been produced since then which is applicable to the determination of quotas on the present basis. A large body of information which we have unearthed in the national origins study would be applicable to improving certain of the present quotas. The error in the present quotas, whatever it may beand there must be error in any quotas, not always demonstrable, but it is certainly there is due wholly to the geographical adjustments which have to be made, because of the changes of boundaries; and as all of the present quotas are derived from one source, whatever error there is in handling that one source affects the quotas concerned very largely. The CHAIRMAN. The quotas have been in use since 1924, have they not? Mr. BOGGS. Yes, sir. The CHAIRMAN. They are fixed now and definite? Mr. BOGGS. Yes, sir. The CHAIRMAN. You would not recommend their change? Mr. BOGGS. I am not at all concerned with the expediency of changing the quotas. The CHAIRMAN. But the quotas as fixed are reasonably accurate, are they not? Mr. BOGGS. They were done as accurately as it was possible to do at the time. The CHAIRMAN. I have no doubt about that. I am not questioning anybody's accuracy or desire to be accurate. But they are reasonably accurate, are they not? Mr. BOGGS. I have not really attempted to recompute any of them with any care. The CHAIRMAN. Then you would be unable to answer? Mr. BOGGS. At the present time. The CHAIRMAN. Who certifies those quotas; the State department does, does it not? Mr. BOGGS. The three secretaries and the committee appointed under them to do so. The CHAIRMAN. All right. Now, they have been certified; and under them we have been admitting those who come from foreign shores? Mr. BOGGS. Yes, sir. The CHAIRMAN. And definitely we have done that since the passage of the law in 1924? Mr. BOGGS. Yes, sir. Senator REED. Mr. Boggs, what proportion of the population of Europe, or what proportion of the area of Europe, is under a different sovereignty to-day than that under which it was in 1890? Mr. BOGGS. Approximately one-seventh or one-eighth of the population of Europe has changed sovereignties since 1918. Senator REED. Are you incuding Russia in that? Mr. BOGGS. Yes, sir. Senator REED. And Russia has an area that has not changed sovereignty? Mr. BOGGS. I am including Russia with the countries in which there. has been geographical change. I also include Turkish Asia. Senator REED. In the effort to determine the 1890 quotas it is necessary to estimate the number of persons who come from that area which changed sovereignty, is it not? Mr. BOGGS. Yes, sir. Senator REED. In other words, in establishing the Polish quota, you have to guess from the Russian, Austrian, and German figures of 1890 what quota should be apportioned to Poland, do you not? Mr. BOGGS. Yes, sir. Senator REED. And that is true of all the quotas that have been created? Mr. BOGGS. Yes; where boundaries have been changed. Senator REED. And it is true of the areas that have transferred their sovereignty from one old country to another old country, as Alsace-Lorraine? Mr. BOGGS. Yes, sir. Senator REED. So that the factor of error is there, and the element of error is possible in the census of 1890 just as it is with the children of the foreign born reported in the 1920 census; is not that so? Mr. BOGGS. Yes. The CHAIRMAN. Yes; but in your computations you took into con sideration all those matters, did you not, in the original computations? It is not possible that all matters of that sort were not considered, is it? Mr. BOGGS. They were considered. The CHAIRMAN. Why, of course. Now, how great is the possibility of error in computation such as has been suggested? Mr. BOGGS. There is an appreciable element of uncertainty when you take into account the effect of the geographical adjustments which are made with respect to each country which lost territorynot those which gained territory-and that those countries which have lost territory total about 55 per cent of the population of Europe. The adjustments must be made in the United States census report statistics, whatever they may be, with reference to those countries. About one-fourth of the population of the countries which have lost territory, or one-seventh of the entire population of Europe, has changed sovereignty. So that affects directly the whole of the present quotas, and it affects two major elements of the national-origins quotas directly. The CHAIRMAN. What are the two major elements of the nationalorigins quotas? Mr. BOGGS. The children and grandchildren factors. The CHAIRMAN. So that if there is an element of uncertainty in the quotas thus far established, there would be like element of uncertainty in the effort to establish national origins? Senator REED. That is just what I was trying to illustrate, Mr. Chairman. Mr. BOGGS. True. Senator REED. That element of error has to do with all of the 1890 quotas, has it not? Mr. BOGGS. Yes, sir. Senator REED. In regard to those countries? Mr. BOGGS. Yes, sir. Senator REED. The whole quota is affected by that element of error? Mr. BOGGS. Yes, sir. Senator REED. Within the national origins you have two streams in which that element of error does not enter? Mr. BOGGS. Yes, sir. Senator REED. To sum it all up, which, in your judgment, involves the greater uncertainty, the greater possibility of error, the national origins as now determined or 1890? Mr. BOGGS. Without having carefully recomputed-using the latest material we have-the present quotas, I could simply give my impression Senator REED. That is what we want. Mr. BOGGS (continuing). And that is that the national-origins quotas as they have been computed, or as they will be slightly revised in the final report, are taken as a whole, at least as accurate as the present quotas. Many of the quotas are more accurate. Senator REED. Mr. Boggs, have you made a study of the ratio of the various quotas to the various populations at present of the European countries to which they apply? Mr. BOGGS. Yes, sir; I have had to do that in connection with utilizing the mother-tongue statistics and the foreign-source materials. Senator REED. By the way, before we go into this new matter, you have accumulated a large amount of foreign-source material? Mr. BOGGS. Yes, sir. Senator REED. Statistics of emigration from various countries? Senator REED. Have you prepared in tabular form a statement of these ratios of quotas to present population? Mr. BOGGS. In checking over the quotas reported last year, I worked out a map-I usually work on maps anyway-and checked up to see whether the net results reflected what I supposed they would in the way of immigration trends. In order to equalize them, of course, I had to compare the quotas with the population of the countries to which they apply; and I have computed the number in the quota per million in the population of each country of Europe, both on the present basis and the national-origins basis as reported last year. Senator REED. Give us the figures for Ireland, Great Britain, Sweden, Norway, and Germany. Mr. Boggs. On which basis? Senator REED. The ratio of present quota to the present population. Mr. BOGGS. In the present quota Senator REED. I am speaking now of 1890. Mr. BOGGS. In the present quota-now the 1890 foreign-born basis there are 9,609 in the quota of the Irish Free State for each million in the population, which means approximately 1 in the quota for every 104 of the population of the country. Senator REED. About 1 per cent? Mr. BOGGS. About 1 per cent. For Great Britain at the present time it is 752 per million. Senator REED. That is, the Irishman has about twelve times as much chance of getting into America as the Englishman has. Mr. BOGGS. Almost thirteen. Senator REED. Thirteen times as good a chance? How is it in regard to Sweden? Mr. BOGGS. For Sweden it is 1,579 per million, which is about onesixth of 1 per cent. Senator REED. Norway? Mr. BOGGS. Two thousand four hundred and thirty-five, or about one-fourth of 1 per cent. Senator REED. Germany? Mr. BOGGS. For Germany, 812, or about one-twelfth of 1 per cent. Senator REED. Will you put the entire table in the record, Mr. Boggs, please? Mr. BOGGS. Yes, sir. Senator REED. So that we need not ask you to tell us orally. (The statement referred to will be found later in the record of to-day, on the margin of the maps, inserted with other data submitted by Mr. Boggs.) Senator REED. Now, under the national-origins basis, what is the picture? Mr. BOGGS. The largest is still the Irish Free State, namely, approximately 5,900 per million, or more than one-half of 1 per cent. The next largest is that of Great Britain, which is 1,457, or approximately one-fourth that of the Irish Free State. Senator REED. The Irishman will still, under the national origins, have five times as much chance of getting into the United States as the Englishman. Mr. BOGGS. Four times. Senator REED. Four times? Mr. BOGGS. Approximately; yes, sir. The next largest is that of Norway, which is 907 per million population, or about one-eleventh of 1 per cent. Sweden is 561. Then, following that, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and Germany. Senator COPELAND. How do Norway and Sweden compare with Ireland and Great Britain in their admissions? Mr. BOGGS. You mean in the present quotas, or national-origins quotas? Senator COPELAND. National origins. Mr. BOGGS. Norway is nearly two-thirds that of Great Britain; Sweden, nearly two-fifths. Does that answer your question, Senator Reed? Senator REED. That answers it; yes. Mr. Boggs, will the report that is about to be made by your quota board, in your opinion, make any material change in the quotas as transmitted to the Senate a year ago? Mr. BOGGS. Not very materially. Senator REED. Would a postponement of the national-origins clause for another year give us any considerable amount of increased accuracy or certainty in the quotas? Mr. BOGGS. I do not see how it can. Senator REED. The quota board has finished its work, practically? Mr. BOGGS. Yes, sir. Senator COPELAND. Mr. Boggs, when you spoke about Sweden, does your reply mean that, if the person in Sweden wanted to come to the United States, he would have half the chance of one from Great Britain? Mr. BoGGs. Under the national origins he would have, say, twofifths the chance of a person from Great Britain. Senator COPELAND. And the man from Norway would have about two-thirds the chance? Mr. BOGGS. That is it. Senator REED. And under the 1890 basis, how are his chances? Mr. BOGGS. Norway, about three and one-fourth times as large as that of Great Britain, in proportion to population, and Sweden, slightly more than twice. Senator REED. At present the Norwegian has three times as much chance to come to America as an Englishman? Mr. BOGGS. That is true. Senator REED. At present the Swede has three times the chance to come as an Englishman. Mr. BOGGS. The Norwegian has three times the chance, at the present time. Senator REED. And under the national-origins plan the Norwegian has two-thirds the chance? Mr. BOGGS. Yes, sir. Senator REED. At present he has three times the chance, but under the new plan two-thirds? Mr. BOGGS. Approximately. Senator REED. Let us have this clear in the record. Under the present plan he has three times the chance that the Englishman has to come? Mr. BOGGS. That is true. Senator REED. And under the new plan of national origins he would have two-thirds the chance that the Englishman has? Mr. BOGGS. That is true. Senator REED. And then, likewise, with the man from Sweden, now he has what did you say? Mr. BOGGS. A little more than twice. Senator REED. A man from Sweden has a little more than twice the chance of the Englishman. Under the new plan he would have two-fifths the chance? |