to 1910 may be computed from the index numbers compiled by the London Economist, by Sauerbeck, by the United States Bureau of Labor, and by Bradstreet. Most of the figures cited in the following pages refer to the decade 1900-1910, but inasmuch as a few of the figures are for the 10-year period ending in 1909, the percentages of price increases for two decades, one ending in 1909 and the other ending in 1910, are stated in Table II.

TABLE II.-Percentages of increase in prices during the decades ending in 1909 and in 1910.

The relatively low prices of 1899 compared with the high prices of 1909 give a large percentage of increase in prices for that decade, particularly in the United States. Prices in 1910 were not so much above those of 1900 as were the prices of 1899 in excess of those prevailing 10 years earlier; but even during the decade ending in 1910 there was, particularly in the United States, a relatively large increase in average prices. In order to secure a percentage which represents as nearly a possible the actual increase in average prices, the mean has been taken of the percentages shown by the two English price indexes and the mean of the two American price indexes.

The value of the international commerce of the 22 leading countries of the world has increased 58.4 per cent during the decade 1900 to 1910. The following table, compiled from the reports of the United States Bureau of Statistics, shows the increase during this decade in the imports and exports of these countries:

TABLE III.-Increase in the foreign trade of 22 leading countries, 1900-1910.1

Argentina, Australia, Austria-Hungary, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, China, France, Germany, British India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Russia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, and United States.

Not including Brazil.

'Including Mexico, Netherlands, and Sweden as in year 1909.

The general average of British and American price increases for the decade ending in 1910 shows a rise in average prices of 11.17 per cent; accordingly, the increase in the volume of the commerce of the 22 countries included in the preceding table was presumably but 88.83 per cent of 58.4 per cent, or 51.9 per cent. This rate of increase applies to the commerce of practically all important commercial countries and includes the trade of the older sections of the world, where the rate of growth is relatively slow, as well as of the newer parts of the world, where the increase in commerce is relatively rapid. For this reason the rate of increase ought to be less than that of the available commerce of the Panama Canal, which will be used by the commerce of the Pacific countries, whose

cent in value. After reducing this 13 per cent, the increase representing the presumable growth in volume of trade becomes 47.4 per cent. Chart A shows graphically the increase in the value of the imports and exports and total foreign commerce of the United States from 1900 to 1911.

CHART A. FOREIGN TRADE OF UNITED STATES, 1900-1911. In Millions of Dollars.

The total foreign trade of the United States increased 47.1 per cent in value during the decade ending in 1910. To eliminate the effect of the rise in prices, this rate should be decreased 13 per cent, or to 40.7 per cent. The foreign commerce of the United States during the decade ending June 30, 1911, increased 54.9 per

The only commerce which the United States will have via the Panama Canal with European countries will be that between the Pacific coast of the United States and Europe. For this reason, the increase in trade of the United States with non-European countries is more indicative of the probable growth in the available canal traffic than is the growth in the total foreign commerce of our country. The value of the commerce of the United States with non-European countries rose from $763,689,189 in 1900 to $1,359,747,319 in 1910, the growth having been 78 per cent. This percentage reduced by 13 per cent, to eliminate the effect of advance in prices in the United States, leaves a net growth in the commerce of the United States with non-European countries of 67 per cent during the 10 years ending in 1910. This is an appreciably higher rate of increase than is predicted for the available Panama Canal traffic for the decade preceding 1915. A still closer indication of the probable rate of increase in available canal traffic is the growth in the commerce between the Atlantic-Gulf seaboard of the United States and Pacific countries, American and Asiatic. The growth in this trade by imports and exports and by Pacific countries is shown in detail in Table IV.

TABLE IV.-Trade of Atlantic and Gulf ports of United States with western South and Central America, British. Columbia, and Pacific countries east of Singapore.1

Total..

Not including Alaska, western Mexico, western Central America except Salvador, and Pacific coast of United States.

Not accounting for $27,456, which is not distributed by ports.

* Decline.

Included under Australia.

The value of the commerce between the Atlantic-Gulf ports of the United States and the countries on both sides of the Pacific rose 72.9 per cent during the 10 years ending in 1910. To indicate the increase in volume of trade, this percentage should be reduced 13 per cent,

623,658 100, 544 11,085, 208

93,700 2 208,957 24,029, 997

17,671,079
1,268, 602
2,777
1,614,811
14, 181, 303
1,075, 535
12, 910, 296

13,600,922
532, 102

316, 407
1,614,199
9,483, 811

3,039,976
808,278
490, 118
3,683,174

10, 168, 571

185.5

901, 978

44.5

699,075

596.5

27,713, 171

150.0

31,272,001

33.6

1,800, 704

603.1

346.2

21,780, 226

257.4

50, 486, 861 64,532, 563 115,019, 424 116, 835, 415 82,082, 928 198,918, 343

72.9

credited to the available canal traffic prior to the opening of the canal. The details presented in Table IV are especially instructive. The commerce between the eastern part of the United States and the west coast of South America, as a whole, advanced 158.4 per cent in value during the decade; this rate, decreased by 13 per cent becomes 137 per cent. The commerce of our eastern seaboard with Hawaii increased 150 per cent in value; the trade with the Philippines, 257.4 per cent; with Australia and New Zealand, 67.8 per cent; and with other parts of Oceania, 288 per cent.

The growth in the value of the commerce between Europe and Pacific countries, other than British Columbia, during the decade 1900-1910 is shown by the following table:

TABLE V.-Increase in European trade with Pacific countries east of Singapore, 1900–1910.

In spite of the large value of the trade of Europe with Pacific countries in 1900 the percentage of increase during the decade ending in 1910 was 52.1 per cent. To offset the effect of rise in prices, this rate of increase has been reduced 12.9 per cent, or to 45.4 per cent. It was thought that the mean between the increase in British prices, 18991909, and the increase in American prices from 1900-1910-12.9 per cent-should be taken as the factor to be applied in offsetting the effect of the rise in prices in the commodities composing the trade of Europe with the two sides of the Pacific.

The traffic of the Suez Canal rose from 9,738,152 tons, net register, in 1900, to 16,581,898 net tons in 1910, the increase for the decade being 70.26 per cent. During the year 1911 the traffic of the Suez Canal amounted to 18,324,794 net tons, the growth for the decade ending in 1911 having been 69.3 per cent. A striking fact regarding the Suez traffic is the continued high rate of growth in spite of the large total tonnage already attained. The Suez Canal is used largely not only by the commerce of Europe but by the trade of the eastern seaboard of the United States with the countries of southern and eastern Asia, with the East Indies, and with Australasia. This traffic thus includes the shipping employed in a large share of the world's trade. The traffic of the Suez Canal is diversified and stable, and its growth represents the normal increase of a large part of the world's international trade. The increase in the net tonnage of the Suez Canal is graphically shown by chart B, on page 50.

The details in the foregoing discussion of the increase in the value of the commerce of the world, the United States, Europe, and the Suez Canal, may be summarized in the following tabular form:

TABLE VI.-Percentages of increase in the value of commerce, 1900–1910.

Most of the details presented in Table VI are represented graphically in Chart C on page 51.

It is believed that the facts presented in the foregoing discussion and summarized in Table VI and in Chart C indicate that the increase of 58.96 per cent in available canal traffic during the decade ending in 1910 does not err on the side of overstatement, and that a continuance of that rate of growth in the available canal tonnage may conservatively be predicted for the five-year period ending in 1915. It is, of course, possible that a period of business depression may precede 1915; however, the economic conditions prevailing in 1912 give no indication of an early decline in business activity. Indeed, the United States and the world at large is still slowly overcoming the effect of business interruption during the years 1907-1909. The world is apparently still within the first half of a period of general business expansion. Unless some entirely improbable event occurs, prosperity may not be expected to give way to general business depression for some years to come.

The facts presented in this chapter indicate an available Panama Canal traffic in 1914-15 of 10,500,000 tons, net register. It is, however, not probable that this entire tonnage will immediately abandon present routes upon the opening of the canal; a period of possibly two years may be required by merchants and carriers to arrange for doing business by the canal route; the transfer of traffic to the canal route, however, will be accomplished in a comparatively short time. Steamship companies are already laying their plans, terminal facilities are being sought, ships are being constructed, and arrangements with rail carriers are being made.

The Suez Canal traffic increased slowly during the first five years, because the traffic between Europe and the East was handled almost entirely in sailing vessels at the time of the opening of the Suez Canal. Steamers had to be built to use the canal. The total tonnage of steamers in 1869 was relatively small; to-day the situation is different; most of the world's seagoing fleet consists of steamers. Panama Canal will not have to wait for ships to be built to handle its available traffic.

The

The increase in the available Panama Canal traffic up to 1915 will be at the rate of about 60 per cent per decade. How rapidly the traffic of the canal will increase after the waterway has been put in operation can, of course, merely be conjectured. The assumption of an increase of 60 per cent during the first decade, from 1915 to 1925,