a 10-member group with expertise in the various areas of environmental concern. The Power Survey report will present projected patterns of electric utility industry growth through 1990 and focus attention on important problems facing the industry, now and in the coming years. We trust that it will rationalize future needs in a comprehensive yet sufficiently simple manner that it will serve as a guide for planning of realistic programs of action to meet the objectives I have described briefly to you today.

APPENDIX C

JUNE 10, 1970.

Revised July 23, 1970.1

BUREAU OF POWER-FEDERAL POWER COMMISSION

PRELIMINARY REPORT ON WINTER 1970-71 LOAD SUPPLY SITUATION

Reports filed with the Federal Power Commission by the Nation's major electric utility systems and pools indicate a few areas may experience tight power supply during this coming winter.

The reports cover 181 major utility systems and pools in all states except Alaska and Hawaii. These major systems and pools include about 350 individual uilities and account for approximately 98 percent of the Nation's total power production.

The FPC staff analysis compares estimated 1970-71 winter peak loads with generating capacity scheduled to be in service as of October 31, 1970, increased or decreased by firm purchases or obligations expected to be in effect at the time of the winter peak. Any capacity which becomes available after October 31 to carry the load dependably in advance of the winter peak would increase the indicated reserve margins.

Reserve margins amounting to 15 to 29 percent of expected peak load demand generally are considered necessary to compensate for forced outages, required maintenance, uncertainties in load forecasting, and other reasonable contingencies. In some instances, systems that appear to have adequate reserves may experience difficulty if one or two large units are forced out of service.

The staff analysis of potential company or system wide problem areas are summarized on a regional basis below. A map showing the regions and Power Supply Areas is attached.

The region appears to be in good shape, however, the New England areas may be subject to voltage reductions should a few large units suffer forced outages simultaneously. If the Millstone Nuclear Plant, scheduled for operation in November, is not delayed, it would substantially improve the reserve margin for the New England area.

The New England regional reserve margin of 13.0 percent is comparable to the margin of the winter of 1969-1970 when there were frequent forced outages of 2,000 mw and frequent voltage reductions. The New England Electric System, with 10.3 percent, has insufficient reserve capacity. The Connecticut Valley Electric Exchange (CONVEX), consisting of the Connecticut Light & Power Com

1 Revised July 29, 1970.

46-966-71-pt. 2- -12

pany, Hartford Electric Light Company, United Illuminating Company, and Western Massachusetts Electric Company, also has an insufficient reserve margin of 6.0 percent. However, the 652 mw Millstone Point No. 1 nuclear unit is scheduled for service in November. If there is no delay in the installation of this unit, CONVEX's reserves will be at 21.8 percent in time for the December peak, and the New England reserves will be increased to 18.6 percent.

New York power pool (summer peaking) PSA 3 and 4

Net dependable capacity.

Load

Reserves

1 32.5 percent.

The New York Power Pool reserve seems adequate for the coming winter, up 10 percent from reserve projections of last winter. Also, 358 mw of capacity will be added during the winter months in this area. (The generator outages which have created a reserve deficiency in the New York City area in late July are expected to be corrected prior to the winter peak.)

The PJM Interconnection appears to have adequate reserves for the winter, 1970-71, up slightly from the winter of 1969-70.

Detroit Edison is the only company in the East Central Region showing less than 15.0 percent reserve margin for the coming winter, and it is only slightly less than 15 percent at 776 mw or 14.4 percent. However, with the addition of 46 mw of internal combustion capacity in December, the company will have a reserve margin of 15.3 percent for its winter peak month.

This area appears to be satisfactory except for the Miami area where reserves are only 7.5 percent.

CARVA (summer peaking) PSA 18 and 21

The CARVA pool consists of Virginia Electric and Power Company, Duke Power Company, Carolina Power and Light Company and South Carolina Electric and Gas Company. Duke is the only company with less than 15.0 percent reserve margin at 10.7 percent (685 mw) projected for the coming winter. However, Carolina P & L has a 700 mw nuclear unit scheduled for installation in October at its H. B. Robinson plant in Hartsville, South Carolina. If this unit were delayed, it would leave the company with negative reserves (-80 mw), but the pool would still have 19.1 percent reserves. As for additions during the winter months, Duke has 140 mw of hydroelectric capacity scheduled for installation in December, raising its reserves to 12.8 percent.

Overall the Florida Power Pool appears to have satisfactory reserves. One member, Florida Power and Light Company is short of reserves with a projected 392 mw or 7.5 percent reserve margin. Due to transmission limitations only limited help could be brought into the area should plants in the Miami area suffer high forced outages.

Net dependable capacity.
Load

TVA (winter peaking) PSA 20

Megawatts

20, 080 17, 750

Reserves

1 13.1 percent.

1

1 2, 330

Although TVA's reserve margin is less than desirable, no problems are anticipated this winter providing there are no problems in obtaining fuel. TVA's net dependable capacity includes 1,800 mw of seasonal capacity exchange. Other systems in the Southeast Region appear to have satisfactory reserves, as does the region as a whole.

This area appears to be satisfactory except for Northern States Power Company. Its Monticello nuclear plant may not be in service in time for the winter peak. Recent information indicates there may be trouble with Commonwealth Edison's Dresden #2 nuclear plant (809 mw). Should this unit not be available for service this winter, Commonwealth Edison may be in trouble.

Wisconsin Electric Power Co. (summer peaking) PSA 13

Wisconsin Electric Power Company appears to be a little tight, but the addition of 498 mw of nuclear capacity at the Point Beach plant in December should help to alleviate the reserve deficiency, assuming installation to be on schedule.

Northern States Power Co. (summer peaking) PSA 16

Northern States appears to have sufficient reserves, but included in the net dependable capacity figure is the 460 mw Monticello nuclear plant which has not obtained a state permit to operate because of environmental concerns. Without this capacity Northern States would have only 57 mw or 2.0 percent reserves. There are some fourteen other small systems which do not have 15 percent reserves for the 1970-71 winter. In total they are short of the 15.0 percent reserve margin by 144 mw and should be covered easily by surrounding systems in the West Central Region which has a total reserve margin of 8,800 mw or 29.3 percent. One of these systems, Minnkota Power Cooperative, Inc., has a conventional steam unit of 235 mw due to be installed in November, bringing the reserve margin for the fourteen systems over 15.0 percent.

The South Central Region is projected to have a 16,095 mw or 60.9 percent reserve margin for the coming winter. Only two very small systems do not have a 15.0 percent reserve margin (short by 9 mw). Also, there is substantial capacity to be added during the winter period, 1,015 mw in November and 777 mw in December. There should be no problems in this region during the 1970-71 winter.

The reserve margin for the West Region appears sufficient for the coming winter. There are seven small systems in PSA's 30, 31, 32 & 41 (four which are winter peaking and three which are summer peaking) plus three small systems in PSA 48 (summer peaking) which have less than 15.0 percent reserves. Since they are relatively small systems, their reserve requirements should be handled easily by neighboring systems with the regional margin being more than adequate.

Pacific Northwest (winter peaking) PSA 42, 43, 44 and 45

This area is up only slightly from the 1969-70 winter (4.4 percent margin for the coming winter compared to 3.2 percent for the last). However, a 4.4 percent reserve margin is extremely short. Interruptible loads probably will have to be disconnected at some time this winter as they have been this summer. Interruptible loads amount to 1,019 mw or 5.8% of dependable capacity.