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2.

-36

Projections for Social Services Administration Institutions

and Facilities

Past trend data on juvenile populations derived from operating agencies involved--Social Services Administration, Juvenile Court, Metropolitan Police Department Youth Division--are largely noncomparable. In addition, radical innovations are being implemented the effects of which are very difficult to predict, since past experience with them is lacking. New court policy, for example, requires detention hearing within 24 hours after arrest and initial hearings within seven days. Adjudication and disposition may well be more severe than at present. The net effect will probably be

a continuing, but short-range rise in population awaiting disposition, followed by a decline after the large current backlog is disposed of, and a sharp increase in the numbers of institutionalized delinquents.

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Admissions

For the Receiving Home, Graph 24 shows the past trends. per year were at 2,100 in 1960 and have been increasing at an average rate of 185 per year. By 1972, admissions will be approximately 4,500 if this trend continues. Graph 25 shows the average daily population as related to admissions. If in 1972 there are 4,500 admissions, then the average daily population by the end of fiscal 1972 should be approximately 230. These projections are made on the basis of an assumption that there will be an average stay of about 15 days per admission.

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