U.S.-related variables The following eight variables can be changed; values given are used to run the various U.S. projections if no changes are made. 1. 2. Total Fertility Rate - current value held constant for 50 years (1980-2030) at the 1979 level= 1.856 source: National Center for Health Statistics (N.C.H.S.) Age-Specific Fertility Rates (or Proportion of All Births to Women in Age Group) - current values held constant for 50 years (1980-2030) at the 1979 level - current values increased over the 50 years (1980-2030) 69.5 in 1980 (based on 1978 data), 72.0 in 2030 Sources: N.C. H.S. and Social Security Administration (S.S.A.) 4. Life Expectancy for Females - current values increased over the 50 years (1980-2030) = 77.2 in 1980 (based on 1978 data), 81.0 in 2030 Sources: N.C. H.S. and S.S.A. 5. Annual Number of Legal Immigrants current values held constant for 50 years (1980-2030) 700,000 for Projection A; 425,000 for Projection B: 0 for Projection C sources: Immigration & Naturalization Service (I.N.S.) and QUIC DATA 6. Annual Number of Illegal Immigrants - current values held constant for 50 years (1980-2030) = 500,000 for Projection A; 75,000 for Projection B: 0 for Projection C U.S.-related variables (continued) 7. Age Distribution for Legal Immigrants - current values held constant for 50 years' (1980-2030) at the 1979 level source: Population Reference Bureau (P.R.B.)/Leon Bouvier - current values held constant for 50 years (1980-2030) at the 1979 level source: Population Reference Bureau/Leon Bouvier *assumes level of net immigration = 1.2 million immigrants per year **assumes level of net immigration = 0.5 million immigrants per year ***RNI = rate of natural increase Source: QUIC DATA projections QUIC DATA is a trademark of The Environmental Fund. TABLE 3 TEFdata: Number 6 September, 1982 THE COSTS AND NUMBERS OF U.S. UNEMPLOYED DUE TO ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION One of the most vexing issues in the current congressional debate on immigration reform is job displacement by illegal aliens and the resulting costs to the U.S. Treasury in the form of transfer payments (unemployment insurance, food stamps, AFDC payments, and other payments to the U.S. workers displaced.) In other words, to what extent do undocumented aliens take jobs away from U.S. residents in the labor force, and how much does this cost the U.S. taxpayer? Since nobody knows how many illegal aliens are working here, or what percentage of these workers are displacing U.S. workers (rather than creating new jobs), we can only give a range of estimates. The table below offers three different assumptions as to the number of illegal alien workers, and five assumptions as to the rate at which they displace U.S. workers. One may match any set of these assumptions to see the resulting U.S. unemployment and the corresponding cost for transfer payments. *Percentage of illegal workers who have taken jobs that would have been filled by U.S. workers. If, as seems likely, the reality lies somewhere near the mid-range in the table, this means that the loss of control over immigration is costing the U.S. about $14 billion annually and has put 2 million Americans out of work. of unemployed is nearly 11 million. The number To help educate the public and policymakers, the Environmental developed a special computer program, "The Impact of Immigration on Fund has the U.S. For more Population" for QUIC DATA*, its color graphic computer presentation. information contact TEF. #tm The Environmental Fund THE ENVIRONMENTAL FUND 1 1302 EIGHTEENTH STREET, NW □ WASHINGTON, D.C. 20036202/293-2548 |