I recently worked for two years in Mexico in collaboration with the Director of the Mexican Government's population program. Since I know this program firsthand, I thought it might be useful to summarize the carefully researched data which the Mexicans approved for a film I produced entitled, "Mexico The Year 2000." This film was reviewed at the highest levels of government, so its contents represent the official views of the Looking at a country through the eyes

Lopez Portillo Government.

of its own people is a good way to understand how they react to the world around them. This film has been shown throughout Mexico on television, in commercial movie theaters and in many rural areas.

By 1960 it

Basically, three forces combine to make up the "push" factors that motivate Mexicans to seek work in the United States. The first is the pressure of overpopulation that has created massive migration to Mexico's cities and to the U.S. At the turn of the 20th century, Mexico had 14 million people. had more than doubled to 36 million. By 1980 the number had risen to 70 million. Taking into account the optimistic fertility decline predicted by the government, Mexico will count 116 million by the year 2000 and 185 million by 2030. (appendix, table 7) In 1980 the Mexican labor force counted 20.3 million workers. About 40% of it was unemployed or under employed. By the year 2000 the labor force will have grown by 77% to 35.9 million. By the year 2030 the total number of Mexicans in the labor force will be 65.6 million. (appendix, table 8) TEF calculates that the annual new job requirements in 1980 was

651,730. By the year 2000 the annual number of jobs required will by 969,040 and by the year 2030 that number will have risen to 1,066,540. (appendix, table 9)

Mexico exported grain in significant quantities before 1970. Since that time it has become a net importer of all the basic foodstuffs: corn for tortillas, wheat for bread, beans and rice as well as soybeans for cooking oil. During a period when Mexico's agricultural production grew by only 15%, the demand for these products grew by 50%. In short, without huge imports Mexico cannot feed its people.

Mexico has discovered a treasure that surpasses even its wildest hopes. But the new petroleum and natural gas industry cannot create the many new jobs needed to solve the unemployment problem. There was a time when Mexico thought that mechanized agriculture was the answer, but again agribusiness does not create jobs, it eliminates them. In 1978 it cost the equivalent of $8,000 U.S. dollars to create an agricultural job. Today the cost is much higher.

Mexico calculates that it must build 500,000 new houses annually to take care of the growing population that is filling its cities to overflowing. The cost for this was one hundred billion pesos annually in 1978 and has risen much higher today. The task of providing the minimum education for Mexico's growing numbers of young people is staggering. We can get some idea of the proportions of the problem when we realize that half of Mexico's people are children and teenagers below 16 years of age.

Today we read that Mexico's foreign debt totals $80 billion. Approximately $30 billion of this amount is owed to U.S. banks.

Since the recent drop in the price of oil, there is little hope that Mexico will be able to meet its obligations. In 1980, a very good year, Mexico created just about enough jobs to take

care of the people entering the job market. unemployment rate did not rise that year.

That means that the

During the past 12

months the Mexican economy lost 400,000 jobs which is a staggering blow to those who seek employment. In actual fact, Mexico's unemployment grew by more than one million last year.

INS FUNDING AND BUDGET SAVINGS

A significant budget increase for INS from a fiscal standpoint is, in TEF's view, wholly justified. Please consider the following analysis.

Most experts peg the annual flow of illegal immigrants to the U.S. at 500,000 to 1 million. Some, like myself, would say it's even higher, but let's assume the midpoint estimate of 750,000 for now. Mindful that most illegal aliens come to the U.S. to work, let us assume further and rather modestly, that 20% of the 750,000 illegal entrants actualy displace legal residents in the work force. This means that in just the current year, 150,000 Americans will lose their jobs because of illegal immigration. When factored with the 1979 CBO estimate of $7,000 in transfer payments per unemployed worker, you see that the cost to the U.S. Treasury is $1.05 billion for one year. This large outlay is almost twice the INS budget request for FY 184. Illegal immigration has gone on for many years, though, and given today's unprecedented federal budget deficits and persistently

high unemployment, one cannot ignore the question: to what extent do undocumented aliens take jobs away from U.S. residents in the labor force, and how much does this cost the U.S. taxpayer? If we assume that there are four million illegal aliens working in the U.S. and 30% of them currently displace legal residents, then this results in 1.2 million Americans being out of work. TEF calculates that this costs the taxpayer $8.4 billion in annual transfer payments. (For a more detailed explanation and analysis see appendix, table 3.)

Therefore, to the extent that increased INS funding and manpower can stem the tide of illegal immigrants, which in turn will help alleviate the serious problem of job displacement, tremendous savings will accrue to the federal government in the form of decreased transfer payments and increased employment.

The problem of job displacement resulting from illegal immigration should not be underestimated. The average wage of the 5,000 illegal aliens apprehended during Operation Jobs was $4.81, well above minimum wage. Moreover, last year, the proportion of aliens apprehended who were employed increased to 57% from 49% the previous year, and this was during the peak of the recession, when the numbers of unemployed Americans

increased.

Mr. Jorge Bustamante, the Director General of the Center for Border Studies of Northern Mexico and a Mexican population expert, said last month in U.S. News and World Report, "In certain U.S. regions, it is an economic problem because Mexicans displace American workers." In an answer to another question he

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said, "Most workers have jobs but seek to improve income and standards of living. This is true in 81% of households we studied." Several recent studies on the question of job displacement reveal that legal residents of this country are being displaced in the work force by illegal aliens in a wide range of occupations, including manufacturing, construction, services, retail, and heavy and light industry.

INS FUNDING IN FISCAL YEAR 1984

Although the Administration's FY '84 budget request for INS of $539 million represents an increase over the $496 million level of the previous fiscal year, it is my understanding that this proposed budget contains no funding for the hiring of new enforcement personnel on a permanent basis. While TEF supports the inclusion in this budget of $20 million for automated data processing and $10 million for a central records processing center, the absence of funding for new enforcement personnel, particularly in light of the enormous "push" factors described earlier, is, I believe, a serious omission.

I am

aware that the Judiciary Committee voted last year to add 642 positions, mostly in the enforcement area, and $29 million to the INS budget. These modest additions have yet to be carried out but were deemed necessary last year regardless of the outcome of the Simpson-Mazzoli immigration reform bill.

In all likelihood, the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1983, HR 1510, will pass Congress this session and become law, thereby requiring further increased INS funding to implement a