THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC PERCEPTIONS ON SUPPORT FOR THE INCUMBENT GOVERNMENT: TESTING DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVES ON HOW INDIVIDUALS ASSESS THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY

This book explores the relationship between individuals’ economic perceptions and their support for incumbent governments in elections, placing much emphasis on how personal economic well-being influences voting decisions. Based on the theory of economic voting, it analyzes the extent to which favorable economic perceptions enhance the probability of re-electing the incumbent. The book uses rational choice models to investigate variables such as macroeconomic indicators and individual beliefs. The present case study refers to Romania, drawing comparisons with a number of European countries, especially those situated in the core and periphery of the EU. Analysis of the data from the 2012 Romanian Elections Study and the 2019 European Electoral Study serves to test these hypotheses. The empirical research conducted in this book provides a comparative analysis of economic perceptions and government support, presenting new evidence of the influence of economic perceptions on electoral behavior in transition economies. The book finally states that political decisions by the public are driven by retrospective, prospective, sociotropic and egotropic views about the economy.